Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz on Tuesday (March 24) said his country would occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River as a security buffer against Hezbollah attacks. The river lies about 30 km north of the Lebanon-Israel border, and the area in between is the Hezbollah stronghold. Sanjiv Arora, India’s Ambassador to Lebanon from 2016 to 2019, explains what is going on in Lebanon, and why. He spoke to Yashee.Following the condemnable assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US-Israel strikes last month, there were some air strikes by the Hezbollah across the Lebanese-Israeli border into northern Israel. While those strikes are also condemnable, Israel’s retaliation since then has been hugely disproportionate. More than 1,000 people have been killed, including more than 100 children.Israel has struck not just south Lebanon, but in many other areas, including the heart of the capital Beirut, a vibrant city where I have lived. In such densely populated areas, rocket strikes taking down entire buildings are devastating. Israel has also attacked Naquora, the headquarters of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which also has Indian troops as members. Tyre, a UNESCO World Heritage site known for its Roman-era ruins, has been attacked.More than one million people have been displaced. Around 150 medical facilities, including ambulances, have been destroyed. It is a humanitarian catastrophe. And these strikes come barely a year after the 2024 conflict, where, even after a ceasefire, attacks never fully stopped. The Blue Line is the UN-demarcated line marking Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, which serves as the de facto border between the two countries.The 2024 attacks on Lebanon had also been to target Hezbollah, after which a ceasefire was agreed to. How has the needle moved from there?The November 2024 ceasefire was mediated mainly by the US and France. One of its provisions had been the disarmament of Hezbollah, to be ensured by the Lebanese government. That could not be executed. And while Israel’s relentless attacks had killed most of the Hezbollah senior leadership and degraded their strength, the group still possesses arms and ammunition, and the capability and appetite to fight.The 2024 ceasefire was basically along the lines of the UN resolution 1701, adopted to end the 2006 Lebanon war. Under this resolution, Hezbollah was to disarm and withdraw to the north of the Litani, Israel was to exit Lebanon, and the only armed groups allowed south of the Litani were the official Lebanese army and the UNIFIL. That could not be implemented, and hostilities have continued, in varying degrees.Story continues below this adThe current spate of attacks has caused large-scale displacement. How will that impact an already unstable region?Many of those displaced have fled to Beirut and northern Lebanon. There are reports of overcrowded shelters where people are struggling to meet basic human needs. Many have been forced to set up camps along the coastline. This in a country that holds the world’s highest per capita concentration of refugees, mainly from Syria and Palestine. About 1.5 million refugees from Syria alone are sheltering in Lebanon. The latest violence, thus, targets an already vulnerable population and exacerbates the suffering of millions of civilians.What has been the Lebanon government’s response so far?The relationship between Israel and Lebanon has always been hostile, but for the first time, the Lebanese government has offered to talk directly to Israel. In an unprecedented move, it has also declared the Iranian envoy persona non grata and asked him to leave the country.Story continues below this adThe government would like to see Hezbollah disarmed, but lacks the resources to do so. The military at its command is small, mainly the army. The Lebanese State has not received the kind of international support it needs to ride out its challenges, including strenghthening the defence forces and disarm the Hezbollah.The Hezbollah, apart from their armed wing, are very much a part of the political and civil life of Lebanon. They continue to hold seats in Parliament, though their numbers have come down. In the 2022 elections, Hezbollah on their own got 13 seats, but their alliance, foremost among which is the Amal party, headed by Parliament’s long-time Speaker Nabih Berri, holds 62 seats.The Lebanese government was struggling with a sinking economy even before the conflicts since 2023-2024. But except some humanitarian aid, not much has been done internationally to shore up the economy and strengthen the government’s hand.Where could the situation go from here?If a ground invasion by Israel materialises, it will be utterly catastrophic. One can only hope that the international community will speak up to prevent that from happening. France, which governed Lebanon for 23 years after World War I and has since maintained a special relationship with the country, is making efforts for negotiations. More countries, including India, need to join in.Story continues below this adAlso in Explained | What role UNIFIL plays in Lebanon, India’s contribution to itIndia has 642 military personnel in UNIFIL right now, one of the higest contributions among all member countries. Given our friendship with all the major players in the region, including our time-tested ties with the Gulf countries, India has the heft and the stature to say and do a lot more than we have done on Lebanon so far, including urgently sending humanitarian aid, like we did in 2006.The UN needs to have an urgent session on Lebanon and prevail upon Israel to abide by international laws.Sanjiv Arora is a former secretary of MEA, India’s Ambassador to Lebanon from 2016 to 2019, and to Qatar from 2012 to 2016. Since May 2024, he has been a member of the Indian National Congress.