#202613 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxMicro-DAX FuturesEUREX:FDXS1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. I do think we will dip some below 22000 just to run stops but I would only look for longs there for another bounce. W4 was a bit too short imo. More oscillating around 22500 seems more reasonable to me here. Monday could start as another huge down move and if the markets bleed bad enough, I expect another big TACO tweet. Depending on how you draw the bull trend line from the 2022 lows, we are either close or touched it. That means we also passed the 50% retracement for the bull trend after the 2025-04 lows. Every bull dreamed of this pullback for 10 months and one can not remain too bearish down here. Sure we could dip below 22000 but I expect much more sideways movement until we either get a ceasefire and real talks or a big escalation like US boots on Iranian ground. Also xetra already dipped below and printed 21863 so betting on futures doing the same is weird at best. current market cycle: monthly tf bull trend in jeopardy - bulls need to keep the trend line alive key levels for next week: 21000 - 23300 bull case: There will be bulls buying this 50% retracement and 22000 on xetra, thinking we can at least do sideways between 22000-23000, which translates to futures 22200-23200. The big bull trend line and the 50% retracement are likely the reason dax did not make new lows last week and went sideways. Bulls want to turn the market neutral with another flat week and go sideways. Any print above 23300 would be amazing for them, because it would mean higher highs again. The green ABC is the potential path if we get a ceasefire confirmed by Iran. Invalidation is below 21700 bear case: Last week I made the case for the 50% retracement being a bad spot for shorts and we would likely see W4 and we are in it. Maybe this one is much shorter than the first and we see a quick W5 spike but even then I would rather look for longs below 22000. The bear channel is tight so bears are strong but most bears will not force anything at this big trend line. Any print below 21900 would surprise me and I would then favor the quick W5 thesis. This will most likely be the first month closing below the monthly 20ema since 2023. Let that sink in a bit. Invalidation is above 23500 short term: Sideways to up most likely medium-long term - update 2026-03-29: 22000 hit so I can only see a prolonged bear trend, if the war escalates, oil >= 100$. In that case, we will see 20000 or lower this year. If the us chickens out, my best guess is a big triangle with higher lows and lower highs on the monthly chart. So staying above 19700 and below 25800.