AUDCAD: Sell the Oil-War Rallies!Australian Dollar vs Canadian DollarFUSIONMARKETS:AUDCADjinweiangFundamental Narrative: With AUD being a well-known 'risk-sentiment' currency, it has already been underperforming since the war started, and I am expecting it to continue doing so. The reason can be found in the weakening of US equities, elevated volatilities, and smart money / investors transferring their funds into safer, more defensive assets. In simpler terms, AUD does not do well in the current stressed and tight geopolitical climate. CAD on the other hand, is getting ample support from higher energy prices, caused by the spike in oil prices recently (covered in my XTIUSD analysis). This is the CAD's main pillar of support. Even though Canada's recent macro outlook and news has not been outright bullish or signalling strong growth, we can capitalise on the fact that CAD will hold up better than AUD due to the rising oil prices. Hence, putting both together, when we have a bearish outlook on AUDCAD, we are basically saying: sell the more risk sensitive currency, while owning the one with more oil support. This is valid, as long as the geopolitical-oil premium continues to persist. Fundamentally, what invalidates this trade idea is if oil drops sharply on de-escalation headlines (only pillar of support for CAD hence collapses), equities bounce and push toward the upside or, the market strongly rotates back into cyclicals. Technical Narrative: From the chart, it is quite clear to see that price is currently in a downtrend, delivering consistent lower highs. To me, the structure of price currently looks like it is in a re-distribution cycle, with draws on liquidity being on the sellside liquidity below range lows. As such, I would be looking for short-term buy-side sweeps into premium acting as LPSY (Last Point of Supply), followed by a clean market structure shift, and taking my short entry on a formed FVG or orderblock. In the chart, I have marked out some areas where this is possible. Possible Sell Area 1: 0.95564 - 0.95602 Possible Sell Area 2: 0.95728 - 0.95809 Invalidation/SL: Strong close above 0.96124. I have also included 2 possible exact entry points with their own SLs, feel free to take those, or if you want to be safer, wait for confirmation with confluences like CISD/MSS. Possible Targets: - Local Support 0.95335 - Sellside Liquidity Target 1: 0.95243 - Sellside Liquidity Target 2: 0.95039 - Extension Target: 0.94625 The areas and levels listed are to be used as a guide and areas of interest, if you choose to follow my analysis, do note that it is still prone to mistakes, make sure you follow your own rules, if not, do take it as confirmation for your own analysis. Fair winds!