OIL awaits further guidance from the geopolitical situation.WTI CRUDE OILTVC:USOILChuck_WilsonThe core driver of this round of oil price increases remains supply-side concerns. The risk of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and with the US-Iran conflict entering its fifth week, the market has largely priced in potential supply disruptions. Looking at the charts, after stabilizing above $100, US oil did not accelerate its upward momentum but instead entered a narrow trading range, reflecting a consolidation phase after the continuous rally. Technically, the short-term moving average system maintains a bullish alignment, with the EMA50 providing dynamic support around $97.77, indicating that the main upward trend remains intact. However, it's worth noting that the 4-hour RSI indicator showed signs of weakening after reaching overbought territory above 74, suggesting a potential for a short-term technical pullback. Given that geopolitical risk premiums have not yet subsided and the overall trend remains bullish, short-term trading should maintain a "buy on dips" strategy. Aggressive traders can consider a small long position in the $100.5-$101 range, with a stop-loss below $99.5; more conservative traders should wait for the $98-$98.5 range for a more secure entry. The first upside target is $103.5, and a break above this level could test the $105-$107 range. It's worth noting that the combination of overbought RSI and easing geopolitical sentiment could trigger a short-term sell-off. If oil prices decisively break below $98, the validity of the short-term bullish structure needs to be reassessed; in that case, a wait-and-see approach is advisable. USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL