SPY/SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 13 of 2026 (30 MAR-03 APR)State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYUA_CAPITALSPY Weekly Outlook Last Week's Recap Last week, SPY ran the 647 level, which I defined as the HTF Key Low, and closed back above it. This was a clear deviation, and it made a potential bounce at the start of the week very likely. That idea was already shared in the weekly post. However, we also clearly stated that if price failed to break and hold above the Lower Band, the direction would shift back to the downside. With the ceasefire news coming from the US side, the market got hyped and price pushed into the Lower Band on Monday and Tuesday. Many participants started to assume a bullish reversal and chased the upside. We stayed disciplined and followed the plan. Price trapped the bulls and, as expected, closed below the 657 Lower Band level. That was the confirmation we needed. We entered Puts and shorted the market. We took profits around the 647 level, closing 90% of the position, capturing a clean 10-point move, roughly a 1.5% drop. Overall, we stayed away from the noise, followed the Sunday plan, and executed one clean trade with a 1/1 win rate while many got trapped by FOMO. (Last week’s analysis is shared on the side for reference.) Current Week's Scenarios – Prediction Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation The market continues to move within a bearish structure. The 644 level (lower band of the Key Level) stands out as a potential rejection zone. If price moves into this level and shows rejection, I will look to enter Puts and continue shorting the market. Bounce Levels (Bearish Targets): 629.5 – 614 – 598 These levels can act as bounce zones, and I will be taking profits on Puts around these areas. If price reaches any of these levels and prints a daily close back above, a short term long can be considered toward the next level. However, since a full bullish reversal structure is not present yet, these would only be reaction trades, so position sizing should remain controlled. Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal Attempt If price breaks above the 649.5 level (upper band of the Key Level) and secures a daily close above it, the structure can shift to bullish. In that case, I will look to take Calls around the 649.5 area and target 661 as the next level. Until that confirmation comes, downside continuation remains the more probable scenario. Position Management Notes I only enter trades after confirmation. Acceptance above or below key levels is required before taking a position. If price reclaims or loses a level after entry, the setup becomes invalid and positions should be managed accordingly. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.