SPY/SPX Bear Market, liquidity speedbumps, and key levels S&P 500SP:SPXMerloClover-PugetPointCapitalSPX SPY The current setup mirrors the prior rally from trough to peak, projecting a speculative 20% bear market range. From here, I’m watching for a push into 6100–6200 that’s where strong resistance should form. If we reject that zone, it likely marks the start of a deeper unwind. A quick overshoot toward 6000 wouldn’t surprise me and could trigger a dead cat bounce, but unless buyers regain control above 6200, the bounce should fade. At 20% we'll be around $5550, where we’d likely find structural support. However a market shock around there could allow it to drop to $5200 if something happens while we're in that zone. I don't think we'll go lower than $5000 moving forward