S&P 500 | Channel Breakdown, VIX Elevated – 6,200 SupportS&P 500SP:SPXAlchemyMarketsThe S&P 500 has now broken decisively below its ascending channel, confirming that selling pressure is broadening out. The VIX has pushed up to the 20-level — reflecting a shift toward risk aversion as investors reassess valuations, Fed uncertainty, and global growth headwinds. Historically, a VIX near 20 signals heightened demand for downside protection but not full-scale panic — often appearing in the early-to-mid phase of a correction. Technical Lens: The index has broken beneath the lower bound of the ascending channel that guided price action for much of 2024–25. RSI is sliding deeper into bearish territory and has already broken the halfway mark (~50), now near 42 — signalling growing downside momentum. Importantly, a bullish RSI divergence is forming: while price makes lower lows, RSI is flattening, hinting that sellers may be losing steam as we approach the next key zone. The next major support sits around 6,200, aligning with previous structure lows and the midpoint retracement of the broader channel. Scenarios: Scenario A (Base case): If SPX continues trading below the broken trendline (~6,650–6,700), the path of least resistance points toward 6,200. Scenario B (Relief setup): If RSI divergence plays out and SPX reclaims the 6,700 region, short-covering could trigger a bounce — but the structure remains bearish while under 6,850. Catalysts: Macro: Uncertainty around the Fed’s December meeting and slowing global growth data. Earnings: Tech and AI names (NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL) remain vulnerable after heavy positioning and valuation fatigue. Volatility: The elevated VIX keeps risk-off bias intact — any sustained rise above 22-23 could accelerate defensive flows. Takeaway: Momentum and volatility both point to deeper correction risk, with 6,200 emerging as the next logical support. Until the index can reclaim 6,850, the bias stays tilted lower — this remains a “watch zone” for potential exhaustion rather than a reversal confirmation.