EUR/USD Snaps 1.15- Recovery Risk RisesEuro / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:EURUSDFOREXcomEuro is attempting to recover after a brief break below the 1.15 handle, with EUR/USD carving the weekly opening range just below the November open. The move highlights potential downside exhaustion within the broader downtrend, with the focus now on whether a near-term recovery can develop from this zone. A breakout of the weekly opening range may offer clarity on direction in the days ahead. EUR/USD continues to trade within the confines of the descending pitchfork extending off the yearly high. A two-day rally is now testing confluent resistance near the 75% parallel at 1.1537/42- a region defined by the objective monthly / weekly open and the mid-October swing lows. A rally surpassing this pivot zone would expose a stretch towards the Fed reversal close at 1.1601. Note that this level converges on the upper parallel tomorrow (near-term bearish invalidation). Ultimately, a breach / close above the 38.2% retracement of the September decline and the September 25 swing low at 1.1641/46 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance eyed at the October high-day close (HDC) / 61.8% retracement at 1.1731/47. Initial support rests at the 1.15-handle and is backed closely by the weekly range low at 1.1469. A break / close below the median-line is needed to mark resumption of the September downtrend with subsequent support objectives seen at the May HDC / August low at 1.1387/92 and 200-day moving average / 100% extension of the September decline at 1.1340/52. Both regions represent areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price exhaustion IF reached. Bottom line: EUR/USD is threatening downside exhaustion here and the risk remains for a larger recovery within the multi-month downtrend. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance. Rallies should be limited to 1.16 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the weekly low needed to fuel the next leg of this decline. -MB