GBPUSD Pound Faces Renewed Pressure as U.S. Strength PersistsGBP/USDOANDA:GBPUSDultreosforexGBPUSD continues to trade under heavy pressure after a brief recovery attempt. The pound’s rebound has been capped by renewed dollar demand, supported by resilient U.S. data and cautious Fed communication. The pair is now approaching a key resistance area that could define whether this bounce is merely corrective before the broader downtrend resumes. Current Bias Bearish. The recovery from recent lows appears corrective, with sellers likely to return near 1.3200–1.3250 resistance. Key Fundamental Drivers U.S. Dollar Strength: Despite softer job cuts data, the greenback remains supported by firm Treasury yields and safe-haven demand amid lingering global uncertainty. Bank of England (BoE): The BoE’s recent decision to hold rates highlights its growing concern over weak growth and declining inflation momentum, weakening GBP’s rate advantage. Economic Divergence: U.S. macro data, including solid ISM services and stable labor metrics, contrast with U.K.’s stagnant retail and wage growth outlook. Macro Context The fundamental landscape favors the dollar as growth momentum remains firmer in the U.S. than the U.K. The Fed’s cautious stance signals patience before rate cuts, aligning with stronger U.S. yields that underpin the greenback. In contrast, the BoE faces a tougher environment: falling inflation but sluggish growth and rising fiscal stress. With U.K. GDP flatlining, sterling’s upside remains limited. Broader risk sentiment also plays a role—tariff headlines and geopolitical uncertainty sustain a mild risk-off tone, indirectly supporting USD over GBP. Interest rate expectations: Fed: First rate cut likely delayed to mid-2026 unless inflation drops more sharply. BoE: Expected to start easing slightly earlier, with limited tightening justification left. Primary Risk to the Trend The main risk to the bearish view would be a dovish turn from the Fed or a strong U.K. inflation or wage surprise prompting a BoE hawkish repricing. An unexpected improvement in global sentiment could also weigh on the dollar, lifting GBPUSD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI release (key for yield direction and USD tone) BoE Governor Bailey’s upcoming remarks U.K. GDP and labor market data next week Leader/Lagger Dynamics GBPUSD acts as a lagger in major USD pairs. It tends to follow EURUSD moves but with amplified reactions during policy divergence phases. It also influences GBP crosses like GBPJPY and GBPCAD, where its weakness usually spills over. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3090 / 1.3000 Resistance Levels: 1.3200 / 1.3300 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3330 Take Profit (TP): 1.3010 (initial), 1.2950 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints The broader setup keeps GBPUSD bearish, with the recent recovery likely to fade near resistance as macro divergence and yield spreads favor the U.S. dollar. Selling pressure is expected to resume between 1.3200 and 1.3250, targeting a retest of 1.3010 and potentially 1.2950. Stop-loss placement above 1.3330 protects against any unexpected policy shifts or Fed-driven dollar corrections. The key watchpoints remain U.S. CPI and BoE commentary, as both could redefine near-term sentiment. Unless U.K. data surprises to the upside, the dollar’s dominance looks set to persist into the next trading week.