NZD/USD: A Trap for Early Buyers? Retail 90% LongNZD/USDOANDA:NZDUSDEdgeTradingJourney1️⃣ Technical Context NZD/USD is trading around 0.5630, within a descending channel that started in mid-July. After testing the lower boundary of the channel and the demand zone between 0.5570–0.5620, price reacted with a mild technical bounce — yet without any structural reversal confirmation. The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence and remains above 30, signaling a possible short-term rebound toward 0.5750–0.5800 before a potential continuation lower. Key Levels Resistance: 0.5750 / 0.5820 (upper channel + prior supply) Support: 0.5570 / 0.5500 (demand + channel bottom) Technical Bias: bearish while below 0.5820, but short-term corrective potential toward the upper channel remains. 2️⃣ COT Data (latest available report) NZD Futures (CME): Non-commercial: Long +3,044 | Short +6,160 → rising net short exposure. Commercial: Long +2,869 | Short -286 → commercials remain hedged, confirming structural weakness in NZD. USD Index: Non-commercials remain net short but are reducing exposure, signaling gradual USD strength. → Interpretation: COT data confirms a pro-USD, bearish bias on NZD, consistent with the broader technical trend. 3️⃣ Seasonality Historically, November is slightly positive for NZD/USD, especially in shorter time frames (5–2 years). 20 years: -0.001 10 years: -0.003 5 years: +0.004 2 years: +0.005 → Suggesting a short-term recovery phase in early November, followed by renewed weakness later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Long: 90% Short: 10% Average long price: 0.5766 → The overwhelming long positioning suggests many retail traders are trying to catch a bottom, which raises the risk of further downside pressure in the short term (potential liquidity sweep below 0.56). 5️⃣ Trading Outlook Overall Bias: bearish with a short-term corrective potential. Main Scenario: → Pullback toward 0.5750–0.5800 (upper supply zone), then likely continuation lower toward 0.5550–0.5500. Alternative Scenario: → A daily close above 0.5820 would invalidate the bearish setup and open room toward 0.5950. Confluences: ✅ RSI bullish divergence ✅ Short-term positive seasonality ⚠️ Retail extremely long ⚠️ COT bearish for NZD