EUR/USD – Short-Term Structural Continuation SetupEuro FX FuturesCME:6E1!philipemavGlobal Macro Context The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a neutral–dovish stance, showing no urgency to cut rates. With no COT Report and no major updates on monetary policy this week, the macro narrative remains unchanged. We also didn’t have the JOLTS release, and we’re unlikely to have Payroll data tomorrow due to the ongoing government shutdown. This absence of labor data makes it difficult for Fed members to justify any near-term rate cut. Hence, monetary expectations remain stable, supporting a relatively firm U.S. dollar in the short run. Market Structure & Price Action From a long-term perspective, EUR/USD remains in a bullish structure. We recently saw a bearish failed auction inside a long-term demand zone, with buyers successfully producing a short-term structural shift (CHoCH) to the upside. Price had moved outside the Value Area (VA) of the previous medium- and long-term impulses — a typical condition for retracement. Several inefficiencies were left behind, so the current upward correction is consistent with restoring balance. However, the medium-term structure is still bearish and dominant, and when sellers react from upper supply zones, they’ll likely attempt to violate the current short-term bullish structure and realign the broader framework to bearish — consistent with the slower monetary transition implied by the Fed’s stance. At the moment, the focus remains on aligning with the short-term bullish bias, and reassessing near the vPOC of the medium-term VA, where renewed selling pressure could emerge. Volume & Order Flow Analysis The demand zones within the current short-term dealing range were validated by strong confluence: Technical discount (retracement toward 75%), Positive Delta Cluster (confirming buyer aggression at discount), VWAP alignment (institutional mean reversion level). The lower demand zone corresponds to the accumulation base that originated this entire move — the true institutional demand, where the bulk of long positions were established and will likely be defended. The upper demand represents a reaccumulation leg, where price overlapped a previous supply that failed to hold — the moment sellers lost control and bullish momentum accelerated. Outlook Tomorrow would normally bring COT and Payroll, but due to the ongoing U.S. shutdown, no major macro data is expected. Therefore, price action will likely depend on order flow and continuation dynamics, especially around VWAP and the short-term demand zones. The plan remains to trade in alignment with the short-term bullish structure, focusing on continuation entries as long as demand holds and Delta confirms sustained buying aggression.