Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayWTI CRUDE OILTVC:USOILRyan_Lewis1Geopolitical Risks: Structural imbalances persist, with short-term disturbances being the main factor The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its fourth year. Russia's crude oil has doubled its share in the Asian market through the "shadow fleet" (487 vessels) and Indian refineries (processing 1.8 million barrels per day), with the price difference between Urals and Brent narrowing to $15 per barrel. The pulse-like impact of the conflict on oil prices has weakened, but there is still a possibility of a "black swan" event - if Russian energy facilities are attacked, it could lead to a 2-3 million barrels per day supply gap, and oil prices could exceed $150. Additionally, the advancement of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the restoration of shipping order in the Red Sea have reduced the short-term geopolitical premium, but potential risks such as the situation in the Middle East and Iran sanctions have not been eliminated, which may trigger short-term price fluctuations. The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is the "mid-term supply surplus" versus "short-term marginal improvement (demand differentiation + interest rate cut expectations + geopolitical disturbances)". The price of $59.50 is in the "bottom support zone + policy sensitive zone", making it suitable to adopt a combination strategy of "short-term catching rebounds, medium-term controlling risks" - using short-term marginal variables to earn short-term gains, while hedging the downward risks brought by the medium-term surplus through option tools. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59-59.5 tp:60-60.5 sl:58.5