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To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Waste Dive newsletter. This is the latest installment in Waste Dive’s Biogas Monthly series.Shifting economics are putting a spotlight on projects converting landfill gas to renewable natural gas. Waste companies this month reported making decisions surrounding their RNG portfolios based on the price of D3 RINs, the credits created for cellulosic biofuels through the federal Renewable Fuel Standard.Prices for the RINs were down roughly a dollar in October compared to D3 prices the prior year, according to data analyzed by Stillwater Associates. That follows a tumble that's lasted most of the year. As a result, investment bank Jefferies lowered its long-term expectation for the credit to $2.20 from $2.50 when estimating free cash flow from RNG.Waste Connections CFO Mary Anne Whitney told analysts on an earnings call that “cost creep and delays” continue to hamper the company's RNG projects. The company has warned investors about delays in the past, but this month said it was pushing back some of its planned capital spending to next year in light of those challenges.The company had previously projected a 1-1 ratio between dollars invested and earnings from RNG projects when RINs were in the $2.50 to $3 range. But that calculus has changed with prices now hovering in the $2.25 range, Whitney said.“That certainly alters our expectations, and you could see the 1-to-1 moving closer to 2-to-1 depending on what those ultimate values are,” Whitney said on the Oct. 22 call.Executives at WM also told investors they'd be pushing back the sale of some RINs to the fourth quarter, hoping to take advantage of an uptick in prices. And Republic Services executives told analysts the company could focus more on using landfill gas to generate electricity rather than RNG in the future to take advantage of massive energy demand from data centers.Analysts say several factors are leading to the reduced credit prices. The EPA's proposal for the near future of the RFS, which it calls Set 2, takes a more pessimistic view on the future of the credits than the biofuels industry would like. The target volumes of credits that it proposed fossil fuel producers would need to buy are conservative, and the agency noted long term questions about how much new demand there would be for fuels like renewable natural gas in the transportation sector.At the current range, RIN prices are still within most waste companies' RNG investment theses, and they can still generate a return on investment. But if prices hold at their current levels, those companies may seek another outlet for their RNG — or return to the landfill gas-to-electricity projects that previously dominated the space.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,742.86 -53.43 (-0.79%)Dow 3047,036.66 -274.34 (-0.58%)Nasdaq23,151.09 -348.70 (-1.48%)Russell 20002,430.21 -34.57 (-1.40%)VIX19.04 +1.03 (+5.72%)Gold3,991.70 -1.20 (-0.03%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersHAE Haemonetics Corporation 66.89 +16.17 (+31.87%)APPN Appian Corporation 38.57 +9.23 (+31.49%)BHF Brighthouse Financial, Inc. 65.80 +13.99 (+27.02%)LFST LifeStance Health Group, Inc. 6.13 +1.32 (+27.42%)SITM SiTime Corporation 346.51 +67.44 (+24.17%)Top losersELF e.l.f. 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