America is ‘going broke slowly,’ says JPMorgan — how to keep your portfolio safe as the national debt tops $38 trillion

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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===y&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};ge("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat($n)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat(Xn))};t.notifDropdown&&so(e,t)}))}()}};]]>Vawn HimmelsbachFri, November 7, 2025 at 12:30 PM GMT+1 6 min readIs your portfolio safe from U.S. fiscal policy? Fiscal policy decides the tax rates you pay and the government’s spending, and the 2026 fiscal year (FY) for the federal government just began last month.Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don't have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here's howRobert Kiyosaki says this 1 asset will surge 400% in a year — and he begs investors not to miss its ‘explosion'Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — here’s what it is and 3 simple steps to fix it ASAPWith the national debt at over $38 trillion, JPMorgan thinks it’s worth looking at how “the steady deterioration of U.S. government finances” could impact investor returns. [1]The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in FY 2025, or 6% of GDP.In a note released October 13, JPMorgan chief global strategist David Kelly said 6.7% of GDP is a “low-ball” forecast of the FY 2026 deficit.Under the bank’s assumptions, the debt-to-GDP ratio will climb from 99.9% in September to 102.2% by September 2026. There are good reasons to believe, however, that the debt will rise even faster than this,” said Kelly, citing the possibility of the Supreme Court saying Trump’s tariffs are illegal, possible stimulus distributions, and other major spending that may come up.Over the long-term, JPMorgan sees the deficit ranging between 6% and 7% of GDP into the next decade, boosting the debt-to-GDP ratio by roughly 2% each year.“However, even this may be too optimistic as it assumes uninterrupted economic growth and, more importantly, that despite populism from both the right and the left, Congress finds the discipline to avoid both further tax cuts or expanded government programs,” wrote Kelly. “A more likely scenario is that, either due to an emergency or a recession, the deficit ratchets up to 7% or more of GDP, leading to an acceleration in federal debt accumulation.”Rising national debt can reduce the size of the economy, number of jobs, private investment and wages, according to a quantitative study by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. [2] And rising federal deficits and debt can cause higher inflation and interest rates, according to an analysis from The Budget Lab at Yale. [3]Read more: Are you richer than you think? Here are 5 clear signs you’re punching way above the average American’s wealthStill, many of these changes take time.“The question I am asked most frequently by investors and financial advisors is when is the federal debt going to blow up in all of our faces,” wrote Kelly. “My usual answer is that, while we are going broke, we are going broke slowly.”Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,728.80 +8.48 (+0.13%)Dow 3046,987.10 +74.80 (+0.16%)Nasdaq23,004.54 -49.46 (-0.21%)Russell 20002,432.82 +14.00 (+0.58%)VIX19.08 -0.42 (-2.15%)Gold4,009.80 +18.80 (+0.47%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersGMED Globus Medical, Inc. 83.89 +22.18 (+35.94%)FROG JFrog Ltd. 60.00 +12.74 (+26.96%)EOSE Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. 18.26 +2.97 (+19.42%)OS OneStream, Inc. 22.74 +3.66 (+19.18%)EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. 258.25 +38.55 (+17.55%)Top losersUI Ubiquiti Inc. 612.19 -147.38 (-19.40%)PRMB Primo Brands Corporation 14.46 -3.24 (-18.31%)RUN Sunrun Inc. 17.13 -3.29 (-16.11%)DIOD Diodes Incorporated 44.28 -7.53 (-14.53%)DOCS Doximity, Inc. 54.29 -8.29 (-13.25%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 188.15 +0.07 (+0.04%)OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 6.56 0.00 (0.00%)ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. 8.18 -0.70 (-7.88%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.6500 +0.1400 (+5.58%)PFE Pfizer Inc. 24.43 +0.01 (+0.04%)Earnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings eventsTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 102,027.56 +2,479.38 (+2.49%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 3,408.32 +189.28 (+5.88%)XRP-USD XRP USD 2.29 +0.13 (+5.81%)^GSPC S&P 500 6,728.80 +8.48 (+0.13%)^IXIC NASDAQ Composite 23,004.54 -49.46 (-0.21%)Top economic events