TDN's Chief Correspondent Bill Finley is joined by Senior Contributing Editor Alan Carasso and Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack to handicap Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.FINLEY: The Puma (Essential Quality) is Mage (Good Magic) 2.0. From the same team that won the GI Kentucky Derby in 2023 with Mage, The Puma is following the exact same pattern. He finished an improved second in the GI Curlin Florida Derby and now looks ready to take another step forward, one that can land him in the winner's circle Saturday for team Gustavo Delgado, Sr. The Curlin Florida Derby horses continue to run bang-up in the Kentucky Derby. Including Maximum Security (New Year's Day), three of the last five horses who crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby ran in the Florida Derby. Five of the last 10 Derby “winners” (including Maximum Security), have come out of Florida.If you like The Puma, you can't not like Commandment (Into Mischief), who prevailed over the top pick in the Curlin Florida Derby. He hasn't been blowing anybody away in the afternoon, but he's consistent and has proven that he is a quality horse. Not sure why Flavien Prat took off him to ride 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Emerging Market (Candy Ride {Arg}). Maybe he just made a mistake. We will see on Saturday.'Rising Star' Chief Wallabee (Constitution) could complete what might be a huge day for the 1-2-3 finishers in the Curlin Florida Derby. Third in that race, he missed by just a half-length, but is going to need to take another step in the right direction. Interesting that Bill Mott is adding blinkers for this race. He's in the Hall of Fame. Surely, he knows what he is doing. Have a feeling this one might be an underlay.The one-hole is never a good thing in the Derby, but that doesn't mean you should dismiss Renegade (Into Mischief). Trust Irad Ortiz, Jr. to figure out how to work out a good trip. Renegade was visually impressive in the GI Arkansas Derby, but didn't face a stellar field that day.'Rising Star' Further Ado (Gun Runner) has gotten a reputation as a horse who only runs his best at Keeneland. Logically, there's no reason why he shouldn't like Churchill Downs. The bigger worry is that he might bounce off his huge effort in the GI Blue Grass Stakes.CARASSO: There is little between the top three in this year's Run for the Roses, and that has me shopping for the 'value' play among them. I am hoping that is 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard Further Ado (Gun Runner) and (could be wishful thinking) am looking to back him at or near his 6-1 morning line.This is not to knock either GI Curlin Florida Derby hero Commandment (Into Mischief) or Renegade (Into Mischief), the GI Arkansas Derby romper. Either is more than capable of bringing up a fourth Derby for their remarkable sire.Further Ado really hasn't missed a beat in his career, particularly since getting out two turns. I am seeing the glass half-full where it comes to the 'horse-for-the-course' as it relates to Keeneland. It's right there on paper, he ran his two biggest races there, but this handicapper feels that his win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club at this venue is better than it looks on paper. He got in a dogfight and prevailed. It passed the eye test for me and I am discounting the fig.His comeback effort behind The Puma (Essential Quality) at Tampa was ideal and I don't think he had an especially hard race in the Blue Grass. He looks well and has breezed well since locally, the draw doesn't concern me and he's obviously a major player, just hoping they go for some of the others.I am taking a stand against low-priced 'TDN Rising Stars' Chief Wallabee (Constitution) (can't give him an excuse for the FL Derby) and Emerging Market (Candy Ride {Arg}) (too much, too soon?) and will try to work a couple of mid to longer chances into the exotics.Danon Bourbon (Maxfield) is the preferred of the two Japanese challengers and has done nothing wrong to date. It will be up to Derby rookie Atsuya Nishimura to give him the right trip in this bulky field. Talent is there, but this is a big ask.Good luck to all!SHERACK: Commandment (Into Mischief) isn't getting the respect that he deserves for a horse entering with four straight wins, led by a refuse-to-lose victory in the GI Curlin Florida Derby, by far the deepest final prep race.He's posted consecutive triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, finishes off his races with authority no matter the pace scenario (he had no business closing like that in the paceless Curlin Florida Derby) and he clearly doesn't mind racing in traffic or splitting horses, either.Between his pedigree–Into Mischief has sired a record three Kentucky Derby winners and his broodmare sire Orb won the Derby in 2013–and gallop out in his final workout, there is no doubt that he wants every bit of this Classic distance.Having a visually impressive maiden win over the surface last fall certainly adds to his appeal as well.With the turn of foot that he displayed in the Virginia Derby and how he's been getting over the racetrack in the mornings at Churchill, will be taking a shot with longshot Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro) at a big number for underneath. Look, I get it. He's not fast enough on figures, but there's no reason that last year's GIII Street Sense S. winner can't take the necessary move forward at this extended trip over a racetrack that he clearly loves.Nothing but respect for the second and third-place finishers from the Curlin Florida Derby.The Puma (Essential Quality) has gears and had no business running the race that he did after making first run in the Curlin Florida Derby just three weeks after earning his diploma in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby.Keep going back and forth on 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Chief Wallabee (Constitution). If you focus on what he's been doing in the mornings training up to this, he's the horse to beat. That's how good he's looked. But if you rewatch the Florida Derby, where's the excuse for him being third best there? Can't be crazy about making a blinker change in a race of this magnitude, but there's a very good reason why Bill Mott is in the Hall of Fame.I'm not against Renegade (Into Mischief). His last two wins were spectacular. Just worry about him giving himself too much to do, especially from the rail draw. The talent is clearly there though.The post Who Do You Like? Carasso, Finley and Sherack Handicap the Kentucky Derby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.