Market Recap & May 1 Trade Plan: April 30, 2026E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (Jun 2026)CME_MINI:NQM2026JP_MarketProfileMarket Recap & May 1 Trade Plan: April 30, 2026 – Monthly Balance Defined ES1! NQ1! Today marked the final trading session of April, a pivotal day where the monthly balance high was officially established. As we transition into May, this level will serve as a primary focal point for market participants. Using the proprietary Camelback TradingView Market Profile, we will analyze today’s trend-day price action and outline the strategic plan for tomorrow’s session. Note: At the time of publishing, the Globex session has already made a new All-Time High (ATH). We will monitor the complete overnight range and inventory carefully before the RTH Open. April 30th Session Review The Globex session set a bullish tone as both indices surged higher, leaving the overnight inventory significantly long. Both ES and NQ opened with a gap and value in their favor. An initial sell-off at the open, which appeared to be a standard inventory correction, gained enough momentum to close the gaps and pull both indices into yesterday’s value area. ES demonstrated structural strength by bouncing precisely above yesterday’s 10-wide Point of Control (POC). NQ underwent a more rigorous test, rotating through its entire value area before finding firm support at Tuesday’s Value Area High (VAH) of 21,172. This level has repeatedly proven its importance, having served as a key pivot for bulls over the last two sessions. The subsequent recovery was led by ES, which reclaimed the Initial Balance (IB) high first. Following a period of rotation from E through G, H-period initiated a powerful trend by clearing the overnight high, triggering a short-covering rally. Notably, periods I, J, and K opened at the highs of their respective previous periods, a clear signature of aggressive buying. This momentum allowed ES to print four distinct sets of single prints and reclaim all previous All-Time Highs (ATH) from both RTH and Globex sessions. NQ’s recovery was more delayed, eventually clearing its IB high during I-period. While it achieved a new RTH ATH, it fell short of the Globex ATH by a single tick, leaving a notable deficiency in the auction. Structural Analysis and Market Generated Information (MGI) ES (S&P 500 Futures) ES entered the day "Down" on the daily timeframe. The gap opening and subsequent breach of yesterday’s high transitioned the daily into a 2-day balance. Context: Monthly is Balanced (2-month), Weekly is Up, Daily is in Balance (7,137 – 7,251.75). Structure: Double Distribution day with four sets of single prints and a valid Afternoon Pullback. Volume/Range: Traded slightly above average volume and 46% above the average range. Final MGI Score: 8-0 Bulls. NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures) NQ came into the session balanced on the daily timeframe; today’s move has transitioned the daily to "Up." Context: Monthly is Balanced, Weekly is Up, Daily is Up. Structure: Double Distribution day with one set of single prints. Volume/Range: Traded 19% above average volume and 41% above the average range. Final MGI Score: 7-1 Bulls. The Power of the Afternoon Pullback Today’s action underscored the effectiveness of the Afternoon Pullback setup when supported by strong MGI. As the saying goes: "An Afternoon Pullback makes a market stronger by releasing some of the buying pressure and removing weak-handed buyers before the market attempts new highs." This remains one of our highest-probability staple setups. Strategy and Plan for May 1, 2026 Tomorrow begins a new month with the Monthly Balance Highs sitting at All-Time Highs (ES: 7,251.75 / NQ: 27,622). We must monitor these levels closely and apply balance rules as price tests these extremes. ES Trading Plan The Monthly Balance High coincides with the Daily Balance High. A successful breakout by the bulls would align all three timeframes to the upside. Bull Scenario: Bulls must defend the VAH at 7,210. There is a significant area of single prints (7,207.50 to 7,245.25) where the market may seek to fill volume. If bulls maintain control of the upper distribution, a continuation toward new ATHs is likely. Bear Scenario: Bears need to reclaim value by trading below 7,210. Their first objective is today’s Afternoon Pullback at 7,192.50. A sustained move lower targets the Daily Balance Low at 7,137; a break here puts the daily timeframe back to "Down." NQ Trading Plan NQ has a specific target: the Globex ATH (27,622.75) which sits just one tick above the RTH high. Bull Scenario: Bulls need to defend the VAH at 27,491.50 (the upper end of the lower distribution). To maintain control, they must hold price at or above 27,542 (the lower end of the upper distribution) to target the Globex ATH. Bear Scenario: Bears will look to attack today’s Afternoon Pullback at 27,347.75. If they breach today’s low of 27,153.50, the daily returns to balance. However, significant support remains at 27,172 (Tuesday’s VAH). Key Levels to Watch ES (S&P 500) Monthly/Daily Balance High (ATH): 7,251.75 Upper Distribution Base: 7,245.25 Value Area High (VAH): 7,210.00 Afternoon Pullback Support: 7,192.50 Daily Balance Low: 7,137.00 NQ (Nasdaq 100) Monthly/Daily Balance High (ATH): 27,622.00 / 27,622.75 (Globex) Upper Distribution Base: 27,542.00 Value Area High (VAH): 27,491.50 Afternoon Pullback Support: 27,347.75 Key Support (Prior VAH): 27,172.00 Daily Balance Low: 27,153.50 Closing Thoughts As we enter a new month, the structural foundation is set at historic highs. Success in this environment requires objective observation. Do not start your session with a preconceived bias; instead, let the Market Profile and the MGI guide your setups.