New TransUnion research confirms that the U.S. consumer credit market is increasingly splitting along a K‑shaped path, with the riskiest and least risky credit tiers experiencing the most pronounced shifts in credit use. While credit conditions have remained stable overall, and improved for a large segment of consumers, others are struggling in the face of rising expenses and increasing debt. TransUnion released the research in conjunction with its Q1 2026 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR).As the divergence between super prime and non-prime consumers becomes more pronounced, it is unfolding differently across the credit spectrum. At the top, the super prime segment continues to expand, with the population growing by 15 million consumers between Q4 2019 and Q4 2025 as more individuals migrate into the lowest-risk credit tier. This upward shift reflects strengthening credit profiles and improving financial health among higher credit-quality borrowers.Six Years Later: The Percentage of Consumers in the Super Prime Credit Risk Tier has Grown Since 2019 While Subprime has Seen Recent GainsRisk Tier / PeriodQ4 2019Q4 2022Q4 2025ChangeQ4 2019 – Q4 2025ChangeQ4 2022 – Q4 2025Super Prime36.9%38.2%40.7%+380 basis points (bps)+250 bpsPrime Plus17.4%18.3%16.8%-60 bps-150 bpsPrime17.2%17.4%15.6%-160 bps-180 bpsNear Prime13.5%12.3%12.1%-140 bps-20 bpsSubprime15.1%13.8%14.8%-30 bps+100 bpsMeanwhile, middle-risk tiers such as prime plus, prime and near-prime have all experienced notable declines since 2019. In contrast, the share of subprime borrowers has remained relatively stable, while many of these consumers face mounting pressure on household balance sheets. Many non-prime consumers – those in the subprime and near-prime risk tiers – are carrying higher debt loads, with rising debt-to-income ratios that point to potential financial strain. Together, these trends underscore a bifurcating credit landscape, one in which financial resilience continues to strengthen at the top, while vulnerability is increasing among consumers already facing greater economic challenges.“The credit market has diverged over the past several years, and that divide is becoming increasingly evident in consumer risk profiles,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “As super prime consumers gain ground, with more consumers moving into that highest-scoring tier, many below‑prime borrowers are taking on higher debt loads, increasing their reliance on credit and showing early signs of performance stress at a time when affordability pressures remain elevated.”Rising Debt Burdens Intensify Financial Strain for Non-Prime ConsumersAffordability challenges shape outcomes across the credit spectrum, but they weigh most heavily on non-prime consumers. Since Q4 2019, debt loads have risen across all risk tiers, driven by increased borrowing in part fueled by higher everyday expenses. These growing balances and the resulting debt service obligations constrain household cash flow and reduce financial flexibility. Super prime consumers recorded the largest percentage increase in total debt, with average balances rising 25%, while subprime consumers followed closely at 23% despite having far less financial liquidity. Yet, their much smaller increase in debt-to-income (DTI) indicates that super prime is far better positioned to manage these higher levels of debt.The DTI ratio is a personal finance measure that compares an individual’s total monthly debt payments to their gross monthly income, expressed as a percentage. It offers a critical snapshot of financial health and debt management capacity. Because fewer non-prime consumers are homeowners than super prime consumers, excluding mortgage debt and focusing on non-mortgage DTI yields a more effective comparison across risk tiers.Non-mortgage DTI increased across all credit segments, but non-prime consumers experienced the steepest rise. Between Q4 2019 and Q4 2025, non-mortgage DTI – which includes other debt types such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans and student loans – grew by an average of 29 basis points (bps) among super prime consumers. By comparison, near-prime consumers saw a 176 bps increase, while subprime consumers experienced a 143 bps rise. Given that non-prime consumers already carried significantly higher DTI levels, these increases are exacerbating existing financial pressures.“These trends point to two very different credit environments,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “Super prime consumers generally remain well positioned to manage affordability challenges, while those in non‑prime risk tiers face growing stress as required payments consume an increasing share of their income.”Non-mortgage DTI is Higher For Those in Non-Prime Tiers, and Growing More QuicklyRisk Tier / PeriodQ4 2019Q4 2025ChangeSuper Prime5.1%5.4%+29 bps Near Prime14.7%16.5%+176 bpsSubprime12.8%14.3%+143 bpsHow Lenders Are Preserving Non‑Prime Credit Access While Managing RiskDespite these challenges, non‑prime consumers continue to have access to new credit accounts. Bankcard lending illustrates this trend clearly: from Q3 2019 to Q3 2025, the share of subprime originations increased by 220 bps, signaling that lenders have continued to serve this segment rather than retreat from it. The largest gains occurred among deep subprime consumers, those with credit scores below 549, whose share of originations rose by 320 bps over the same period. These shifts point to sustained demand and measured lender participation despite a more challenging credit environment.At the same time, lenders have taken a deliberate approach to risk management by adjusting the structure of credit extended across risk tiers. Credit lines have emerged as a key lever in this effort. While super prime consumers benefited from an 11.5% increase in new bankcard credit lines, reaching $12,511 by Q3 2025, growth among subprime segments remained more modest. Deep subprime new card credit lines rose 5.5% to $678, while high subprime consumers saw a 7.1% increase to $1,034. These differences illustrate how lenders continue to extend access to credit while carefully calibrating risk exposure.“In an environment where non‑prime consumers continue to need access to credit, it is critical for lenders to use every tool and data asset available to them to manage risk responsibly,” continued Raneri. “Leveraging comprehensive insights, such as those provided by TransUnion credit solutions, helps ensure the right lending option is extended to the right consumer while protecting portfolio performance.”Evidence of these dynamics is reflected throughout TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Credit Industry Insights Report. Across major lending categories, recent activity highlights a market moving in two directions at once: sustained momentum among higher credit‑quality borrowers alongside increasing strain for more vulnerable segments. At the same time, lenders continue to respond with measured adjustments, balancing credit availability with disciplined exposure management amid persistent macroeconomic pressures.NoYesInfrastructure30 Apr, 2026