In Gujarat local body poll sweep, BJP boosts strike rate; Congress, AAP eye silver linings

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For the second consecutive local body elections in Gujarat, the ruling BJP has registered a landslide victory across the state’s nearly 10,000 seats, shrinking the Opposition’s space further.In a silver lining for the Opposition ranks, the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) managed to notch up a few symbolic wins. For instance, the Khadia ward in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, a BJP bastion since 1972, has been won by the Congress while the Narmada district panchayat went to the AAP, which was the only one among 34 district bodies that the BJP lost.Bastion breachedAdvertisementBJP leaders say the loss in Khadia, a ward in the heart of Ahmedabad, “can never be forgotten or forgiven”. On Tuesday, the neighbourhood witnessed a first — a Congress victory rally — with its four winning corporators bathed in milk in celebration. Khadia will also see another first: its first Muslim corporator, Mohammad Ilyaskhan Pathan.Home to some of the BJP’s tallest leaders, including former Union minister Harin Pathak and former state minister and Assembly Speaker Ashok Bhatt, local party leaders have attributed the loss to “changing demography” and the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.“I cried upon hearing the news of the loss in Khadia… The Assembly seat of Jamalpur-Khadia may have been taken by the Congress, but we have never lost Khadia ward. This happened due to changes in demography and voting patterns,” Pathak told The Indian Express. The Jamalpur-Khadia Assembly constituency is currently represented by the state’s lone Muslim MLA, Congress’s Imran Khedawala. Khedawala told the Express how Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, called him to “appreciate the party’s victory in Khadia” soon after the results.AdvertisementBJP sources indicated internal dissent as one of the factors behind the party’s loss. “At least 3,000 loyal BJP voters did not come out to vote,” said a senior party leader from the area, adding that the loss was under review by the party leadership. Former corporator Mayur Dave said that due to the SIR, “at least 20,000 voters who earlier voted in Khadia, although they lived outside, are no longer on the rolls.”Improved BJP showOverall, the BJP won around 75% of seats across municipal corporations, municipalities, district panchayats and taluka panchayats — an improvement of nearly four percentage points from 2021. The Congress secured about 17% of the seats, down three percentage points. The BJP’s vote share in municipal corporations rose by 6.46 percentage points, while the Congress’s stood at around 26%, a marginal decline of 0.29 percentage points. Going by vote share the BJP got more than half the votes in each election across the municipal and panchayat bodies, with municipal corporations seeing the highest share at 59.3% .AAP expansionThe local body elections also saw the AAP expanding its footprint in certain pockets, particularly under the leadership of its Dediapada MLA and state working president Chaitar Vasava, who is credited for the party’s gains in tribal regions of central Gujarat and in Narmada district. In a significant upset for the BJP, the AAP won taluka panchayats in Garudeshwar (home to the Statue of Unity), Dediapada, Sagbara and Chikhalda in Narmada district, as well as Valia and Netrang in Bharuch district.Despite these gains, the AAP’s overall vote share declined from 13.91% in 2021 to 10.27%. The party also lost a substantial number of seats. From its breakthrough performance in the Surat Municipal Corporation in 2021, where it won 27 of 120 seats and displaced the Congress as the principal Opposition in the previous polls, the AAP has now come down to just four seats in the city.An election of firstsThese elections marked several firsts. These were the first to be held after the SIR, during which more than 68 lakh voters were deleted from electoral rolls — one of the highest among states. They also followed the increase in OBC reservation from 10% to 27%. Additionally, nine new municipal corporations, each with 52 urban seats, went to polls, along with one new district and seven new municipalities created after the administrative reorganisation.A total of 733 seats across various bodies went uncontested, most of them won by the BJP — a figure three times higher than in 2021. Among the nine new municipal corporations, the BJP swept Porbandar and Morbi, winning every seat.In the taluka panchayats, the BJP won 253 out of 260 bodies. The AAP, however, significantly increased its tally from just 31 seats in 2021 to 407 this time, along with a 10% rise in vote share in these bodies. The party has positioned itself as the “number two” force in Gujarat, even as the Congress’s tally in taluka panchayats fell from 1,247 to 1,050.Congress working president Jignesh Mevani attributed the party’s debacle not only to the BJP’s “money and muscle power” but also to internal weaknesses. “The All India Congress Committee (AICC) should have taken more interest in these elections, especially given the challenge issued by Rahul Gandhi in Parliament. Leaders hobnobbing with the BJP have not yet been expelled,” he said.Mevani also argued that the BJP has managed to blunt “anti-incumbency” through its organisational strength.BJP leaders echoed this point, crediting their cadre network. “The absence of anti-incumbency after nearly three decades is due to our booth-level management,” said a state party leader. “Our karyakartas function in auto-mode during elections — they are present at booths, and even logistical support like meals is systematically arranged. That is the level of organisation we have built.”BJP leaders say the impact of the enhanced OBC quota will be clearer in the Assembly elections due in December next year, where they expect further gains.(Inputs from Aditi Raja in Vadodara)