S&P 500 - Sell in May, Return Another Day. The Truth. 2026S&P 500SP:SPXwithout_worries SYMBOL: SP:SPX | DIRECTION: Educational / Long-biased | TIMEFRAME: Monthly Published: April 2026 This idea has been published yearly since 2024. Every year the data is updated. Every year the conclusion is the same. Every year the crowd ignores it and sells in May anyway. Here we are again. No doubt everyone reading this has encountered some version of the phrase "Sell in May and go away." It appears in newspapers, on financial television, in the comments section of every S&P 500 idea published in late April. It is stated with authority. It is repeated with confidence. It is, based on the data, almost entirely wrong. Almost every publisher on the S&P 500 here on tradingview is bearish. , except Ww of course. A quick clarification before the data: the saying refers to the May through October period historically underperforming the November through April period. That part is broadly true, November to April has, on balance, delivered stronger returns. What the saying implies is that May to October loses money and that selling is therefore the rational response. That is where things fall apart entirely. The record. Unedited. Thirteen years of evidence: Year Period S&P 500 Return Sell in May verdict 2013 May – Oct +11% WRONG 2014 May – Oct +8% WRONG 2015 May – Oct -15% CORRECT 2016 May – Oct +8% WRONG 2017 May – Oct +11% WRONG 2018 May – Oct +11% WRONG 2019 May – Oct +18% WRONG 2020 May – Oct +55% WRONG 2021 May – Oct +13% WRONG 2022 May – Oct -15% CORRECT 2023 May – Oct +11% WRONG 2024 May – Oct +17% WRONG 2025 May – Oct +23% WRONG Eleven wrong. Two correct. That is not a trading strategy. That is a coin flip with worse odds. The two years it worked, 2015 and 2022, are worth examining. Both involved genuine macro shocks: the 2015 China currency devaluation scare and the 2022 Federal Reserve rate hiking cycle. In both cases, the market would have fallen regardless of what month it was. Selling in May did not cause the decline. Selling in May simply happened to coincide with it. The distinction matters. In fact, go back far enough and you'll be able to wrap an narrative around any bearish period that followed a red May. The herd are betting on such a scenario right now. But, as usual, they're wrong. The 2026 context The S&P 500 begins May 2026 with one of the largest single-session gains in recent history a 9.32% move on the final trading days of April. The monthly chart shows price confirming support on the ascending trend line (annotated in blue) as a bullish engulfing candle prints. The yellow arrows mark the double retest of that support and the subsequent recovery. The setup, from a purely technical standpoint, does not resemble the two years in which selling in May was correct. It resembles every other year in which it was wrong. The crowd will still sell. Crash and recession is all they'll talk about. All will miss the next 11%, 17%, or 23% gain trying to avoid a drawdown that, based on the above table, has a roughly 15% probability of actually arriving when reviewing the last 50 years. A note on the support line The ascending support line visible on the chart, in place since the 2022 lows, has been tested and held. A monthly close below this support would be the first material bearish signal on the monthly timeframe. Until that occurs, the primary trend remains up, the seasonal data remains unfavourable to the bears, and the case for staying invested remains statistically stronger than the case for leaving. Sell in May if you want to. The table will be updated in November. Good luck. Ww Prior editions: 2025 idea. 2024 idea =================================================== Disclaimer: This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.