NCCW – Project Backlog vs. Margin CompressionNasr Co. for Civil WorksEGX_DLY:NCCWmnmabroukw36ixNCCW – Project Backlog vs. Margin Compression 📉🏗️ The Reality: I see a "Mid-Cap Contractor" currently stuck in a cooling cycle. 🌬️ While 2024 was stellar, the FY 2025 results show an 11.4% decline in net profit to EGP 60.35 million. The story here is a "Margin Pinch" revenue was stable at EGP 348.7M, but domestic rising costs for materials and overhead are eating the bottom line. 🩹🏗️ The Regional Pivot: I note the company is looking outside for growth, recently signing a EUR 46M agreement in Uganda. 🌍 This expansion is vital because domestic margins are suffering. However, I find the EPS of 0.29 EGP (down from 0.32 EGP) reflects the current struggle to maintain efficiency at home. The Cash Flow Hurdle: I observe that cash conversion is tight. NCCW is carrying significant "Work in Progress" on the balance sheet, a typical lag in civil works where milestones haven't yet turned into liquid cash. While I appreciate that the earnings are 100% operational with no "one-off" fluff, the reliance on short-term credit to fund the project backlog is putting pressure on the debt-to-equity profile. ⚓💸 The Valuation: I find the 6.10 EGP Final Target leaves no meat on the bone. By applying a premium 19.0x P/E to account for their historical "Zero-Debt" reputation and adding an asset strength premium for their EGP 951M book value, the target is technically sound but offers no upside from current interest levels. 🎯⚖️ Sharia Status: ❌ Non-Compliant. I confirm that NCCW fails the quantitative screens for the EGX33 Shariah Index (April 2026). The primary hurdles are the Interest Income, which frequently breaches the 5% purification threshold. ☪️🚫 Technical Analysis: The Waiting Game – I see no immediate trigger. 🎢🧗 The Resistance: I've identified 6.14 as the critical level. Since my fair value is 6.10, the price needs to break above this threshold to signal a new bullish trend that is actually worth trading. 🏹🧱 Verdict: I classify NCCW as a "Technical Pass." 🏗️🏎️ The fair value is too close to the current market price to justify the risk of high accruals and a declining bottom line. I will wait for a structural change in earnings before looking at this stock again. 🛡️🔝 If I like my posts, I follow and boost 🙌 🎁 Get a $15 discount on your next subscription: 🔗 https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/?share_your_love=mnmabroukw36ix ✨💸