2 min readApr 30, 2026 06:04 AM IST First published on: Apr 30, 2026 at 06:04 AM ISTThe United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC — a grouping of oil-exporting countries that Abu Dhabi joined in 1967 — will weaken the organisation’s market power. It also brings to the fore the tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia that have been simmering for years. Abu Dhabi’s decision seems driven by several considerations. One, the UAE has consistently argued that the OPEC quotas unfairly constrain its output. Second, in Sudan and Yemen, the Saudis and Emiratis have backed competing factions and pursued divergent strategies. Third, the war in Iran appears to have deepened the divide between the two. Among the GCC states, the UAE has borne the brunt of Iran’s attack, and, reportedly, seems to be in favour of a stronger approach against Tehran. It is also closer to Israel. Abu Dhabi’s decision, therefore, is likely to have been driven as much by strategic calculation as by political and economic interests.In the short term, the UAE’s exit from the group may not cause significant disruptions, as per analysts. The market reaction — Brent crude rose by around 3 per cent after the announcement — does seem to suggest that investor concerns are more centred around the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the increase in energy exports by non-OPEC countries over the years has meant that the organisation doesn’t wield the kind of influence it once did. In recent years, Qatar, Ecuador and Angola have also exited OPEC.AdvertisementThe long-term effects of the exit will become evident when the UAE, freed from quota constraints, ramps up exports, and energy supplies start flowing unrestricted through the Strait of Hormuz. While the UAE’s current output is around 3.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, it plans to raise production to 5 million bpd by 2027. Energy-importing countries, especially India, could benefit from the increased supplies. With alliances shifting in West Asia — a region that is central to India for both energy and trade flows — New Delhi must remain alert to the possibilities and risks that may arise from a changing landscape. It must deftly navigate these geopolitical realignments, while prioritising its interests.