GBP/USD: Retail Short, Smart Money Bearish…GBP/USDOANDA:GBPUSDEdgeTradingJourneyOver the past sessions, I’ve been closely monitoring GBP/USD through a multi-factor lens: COT data, retail sentiment, seasonality, and technical structure. Starting from the COT report, non-commercial traders remain heavily net short on GBP. We’re looking at ~120k shorts vs ~59k longs, with a recent increase in short exposure. This clearly suggests that institutional positioning is still leaning bearish in the medium term. On the other side, retail sentiment is also heavily short (69%). That’s a key piece of information. When both retail and smart money are positioned in the same direction, I don’t blindly follow, I start looking for inefficiencies and potential squeezes. From a seasonality perspective, May tends to show slightly negative performance on GBP/USD over the past 10–20 years. This aligns with the broader bearish narrative, but it’s not strong enough on its own to define timing. Technically, GBP/USD has: Broken its descending trendline Reclaimed a key demand zone around 1.32 Pushed into a premium area (1.34–1.36) At the moment, price is sitting above a Daily Breaker + FVG zone (1.3350–1.34), which I consider a key decision area. If price pulls back into the 1.3350–1.34 zone and holds, I’m expecting continuation towards: 1.36 1.375 / 1.38 This would likely be driven by a short squeeze, considering how crowded the short positioning currently is. Scenario 2 If price fails to hold and we see a clean breakdown below 1.3350, then I’ll shift my bias towards: 1.32 potentially lower levels in line with COT and seasonality.