RIVN — Three-Year Cup, R2 Inflection, $39.81 Asymmetric SetupRivian Automotive, Inc. Class ABATS:RIVNWavervanir_International_LLCA 3-year cup base is forming on the daily. Spot $15.76, prior peak $39.81 (147% to target). The cup is fundamental, not just technical — it tracks the policy shock cycle that hit the entire EV space.The base is built on real catalysts: R2 saleable production began last week — the affordable platform that fixes Rivian's core demand problem $1B VW investment landed in the bank yesterday; up to $2.55B from VW + Uber in 2026 alone Uber partnership: 50,000 R2 robotaxis through 2031, $1.25B equity commitment DOE $4.5B Georgia loan renegotiated for earlier 2027 draw, 300K units/year capacity Q1 EPS beat 47.6%; first positive automotive gross profit guided by year-end The macro headwind is the risk: EV tax credit expired Sep 30, 2025. Q1 industry EV sales -28% YoY. New EV inventory at 130 days' supply.Levels: Entry zone: $14.50–$16.50 (cup lip) Confirmation: weekly close above $18 (handle breakout) Target 1: $22 (prior local high) Target 2: $28 (mid-2023 supply) Target 3: $39.81 (cup measured move + chart target) Invalidation: weekly close below $13.50 Flow note: Jan '28 15C blocks accumulating at the money. Patient capital is dating the R2/robotaxi thesis on a 2-year lease.R:R from $15.76 entry to $39.81 with $13.50 stop = ~10.6:1 if the thesis works. Position size for the macro tail risk, not the technical stop.NFA. Educational.