SKPC – Fundamental Strength vs. The 2.5-Year Downtrend Sidi Kerir PetrochemicalsEGX_DLY:SKPCmnmabroukw36ixSKPC – Fundamental Strength vs. The 2.5-Year Downtrend 📉🧪 The Reality: I see a "Vital Industrial Anchor" that is navigating a complex recovery phase. While 2025 saw a painful 55.38% decrease in net profit (down to EGP 1.133 billion), the outlook for 2026 is much brighter. I note that export expansion into 57 countries, including success in South American markets, is the primary engine for the projected 1.45 EGP EPS recovery. The Fundamental Fortress: I recognize SKPC as a high-quality entity, recently named one of Forbes' "50 Strongest Companies in Egypt 2026". I find its balance sheet exceptionally resilient; it maintains low debt and high operational efficiency, converting profit into cash effectively within a high-demand domestic market. Technical Analysis: Fighting the Gravity of the Channel, I am waiting for the breakout. The Downtrend: I've identified that the stock has been trapped in a bearish channel for 30 months. While recent volume spikes are positive, they have not yet shifted the structural trend. The Confirmation Levels: I believe the trend only shifts above 19.20. I am looking for a high-volume break of 20.00 to signal that the long-term "Correction" is over and the new bullish cycle has begun. The Safety Floor: I see 17.60 as the immediate line in the sand. If the stock falls below the main support at 16.85, I believe the bearish trend will accelerate. The Liquidity Factor: I note that daily liquidity is fair at ~0.5% of market cap, but I am wary of "Greed Traps" in the current market environment. The Strategy: I am staying on the sidelines for now. I need to see the stock trade above 19.20 and ideally break the 20.00 mark to confirm a "Change of Character" (ChoCh) and a definitive break of the long-term downtrend. I view 17.60 as short-term support, with the "Must-Hold" level at 16.85. Sharia Status: ✅ Confirmed Compliant. I confirm that SKPC is an active member of the EGX33 Shariah Index. It successfully passes all screens: its core business is permissible, its interest-bearing debt is below the 33% threshold, and its interest income stays under the 5% limit. Verdict: I classify SKPC as a "Fundamental Buy" but a "Technical Pass". I will not enter at these levels. I am waiting for a definitive Change of Character above 20.00 to target the 21.50 fair value with a much higher probability of success. If I like my posts, I follow and boost 🙌 🎁 Get a $15 discount on your next subscription: 🔗 https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/?share_your_love=mnmabroukw36ix ✨💸