𝗡𝗕𝗜𝗦 — 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗩𝗪𝗔𝗣 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗱Nebius Group N.V. Class ABATS:NBISWavervanir_International_LLC𝗡𝗕𝗜𝗦 — 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗩𝗪𝗔𝗣 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗱 Closed Friday $154.49, +11.76%. Reclaimed the 0.786 fib ($151.79) after defending anchored VWAP off the April breakout base. The $132–$138 zone absorbed every supply attempt. Buyers showed up where they were supposed to. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁 $643M cash-and-stock acquisition of Eigen AI (May 1) folds an MIT HAN Lab inference optimization stack into Nebius Token Factory. Why it matters: inference is now 60–70% of AI compute demand, up from ~40% in 2024. Microsoft allocates ~67% of quarterly capex to short-lived inference assets. NBIS just bought the optimization layer that determines unit economics in the segment eating the workload mix. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀 ⟶ FY26 revenue guide: $3.0B–$3.4B (~6x vs. $530M FY25) ⟶ Medium-term ARR target: $7B–$9B by end-2026 ⟶ Q4 25 ARR exit: $1.2B, sold out into early 2026 ⟶ $3.68B cash + $4.3B convert raised March ⟶ Contracted power: >3 GW ⟶ Meta delivered & live; Microsoft tranches through 2026 ⟶ Q4 group adj. EBITDA positive ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 Hyperscaler capex ~$602B in 2026 (+36% YoY). Goldman: 11 GW US data center shortfall today, 40 GW by 2028. Blackwell B200 lead times: 12–18 months. Capacity is the moat. NBIS has NVIDIA backing, contracted power at scale, and now the optimization layer. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗺𝗮𝗽 ▸ Reclaimed: $151.79 (0.786) ✓ ▸ Next: $159.70 (0.886) ▸ Prior swing high: $168.71 (1.0) ▸ Extended: $187.37 → $198.91 → $208.24 ▸ Measured move: $217.30 (1.618) ▸ Invalidation: close below $138.51 20.42% short interest on float, ~2.5 days to cover. Earnings May 13 BMO. Squeeze fuel loaded. Catalyst dated. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 P/S ~47x. ~$15M insider selling trailing 90 days. $16–20B 2026 capex plan demanding flawless execution. Three misses in last four quarters. Not a value trade. A thesis trade on inference being the next leg of AI compute, and NBIS being one of the few public vehicles with the platform, the power, and the optimization stack to capture it. Chart says the bid is real. Fundamentals say the runway is real. Macro says the wind is at our backs. May 13 tells us if management can ratify the price. 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. 𝘙𝘪𝘴𝘬-𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵, 𝘢𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴. NFA. NBIS #AI #Inference #WaverVanir #VolanBull