As the war in West Asia grinds into its tenth week, Washington has rejected Tehran’s off-ramp. The Trump administration appears ready to prolong the conflict, even as legal questions mount at home. On the other hand, divisions in Iran’s leadership have sharpened over the nuclear path forward. Meanwhile, the UAE’s exit from OPEC sheds light on strained relations with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s economic ambitions. The move could reshape alliances and markets, and, once trade resumes, push prices downward.The standoff between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz continues as the war enters its tenth week. The conflict has yet again exposed faultlines in global alliances and the domestic political landscape – both in the US and Iran.Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposalUS President Trump signalled his eagerness to continue the military operation even as Iran proposed an off-ramp.This week, Tehran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – the maritime chokepoint accounting for a fifth of global energy trade – if the US lifted its blockade of Iranian ports, while proposing that nuclear talks be deferred to a later phase, but Washington rejected the proposal.Trump said he was “not satisfied” with the proposal and that he will not end the war “early” until Washington’s objectives are met. As the fragile Pakistan-brokered ceasefire remains in effect, Iran’s nuclear programme continues to be the key sticking point.Trump told Axios on Thursday that the blockade was “somewhat more effective than the bombing”. Intercepting vessels are proving to be effective at a time when the US has burned through nearly half of its crucial munitions.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that the blockade would stay in place till the freedom of navigation has been restored to “pre-February 27” levels.Story continues below this adFaultlines in Iranian leadershipAmid Trump’s allegations that there is a rift between the Islamic Republic’s decision-makers, opposition-aligned news outlet Iran International reported that the country’s top leadership is seeking the removal of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.President Masoud Pezeshkian and Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf are reportedly seeking the removal of Araghchi over his alignment with IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi’s stance on nuclear talks with the US.The IRGC and hardliners (the Paydari) in the Parliament are adamant about Iran’s right to enrich uranium, while moderates are pushing for making concessions in exchange for sanctions relief.Earlier, Ghalibaf was removed from the Iranian negotiating team by the IRGC over allegations that he expanded the talks to include the nuclear issue in Pakistan in April.Story continues below this adII. Trump evades Congressional approval to prolong warIn the meantime, the Trump administration has signalled its plans to prolong the war, evading the legal requirement to seek Congressional approval to continue the operation.Under the War Powers Resolution, the US President must seek the legislative branch’s approval within 60 days to continue military operations.The Trump administration was required to seek approval from the US Congress by May 1 to continue the operation.However, a day before the aforementioned date, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told lawmakers that the ongoing ceasefire effectively “pauses” the deadline. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine said that the federal law does not support such an interpretation.Later, the Associated Press reported that Trump wrote a letter to Congress arguing that hostilities with Tehran have been “terminated,” in what appeared to be another attempt to dodge the legal requirement.Story continues below this adIt marks another chapter in the battle between the US’s executive and legislative branches to curb the President’s power to unilaterally declare war.III. UAE exits OPECIn a major geo-economic and strategic realignment, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) exited the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+. The groups, comprising major oil producers, hold the ability to influence global oil prices by regulating production owing to their share in the global oil market.According to the World Economic Forum, OPEC produces about 40 per cent of the world’s crude oil, and its members’ exports make up around 60 per cent of global petroleum trade.This marks a major blow to OPEC’s ability to influence or stabilise prices, as the country accounted for more than 11 per cent of the group’s output.Disagreements with Saudi ArabiaThe move was a result of longstanding disagreements over the production quotas, enforced by the group’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, capping Abu Dhabi’s output. In 2025, the UAE produced approximately 3.1 million bpd of oil, against its capacity of 4.8 million bpd.While quotas drive up prices by limiting global supply, they also reduce revenue. The policy can also cede market share to rivals who incur higher production costs, like the US.Story continues below this adAlso Read | UAE exits OPEC: What this means for oil prices, and IndiaThe US, which produces significant amounts of shale oil, faces cost challenges posed by the hefty breakeven prices.The announcement throws light on the multiple dimensions of the strained Saudi-Emirati relations. While both countries have raised concerns about Iran’s militarisation and hegemonic rise, they have competed for influence in West Asia all the same.In this regard, Yemen once again serves as a theatre of indirect confrontation. While Iran supports the ‘Zaydi’ Shia Houthis, Saudi Arabia supports the official Yemeni government, and the UAE backs the Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist group.What’s next?The effects of the UAE’s exit are yet to be felt, as energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually halted. However, once the war ends and maritime trade resumes, the increased output could exert downward pressure on oil prices. The move could prompt other OPEC members to question the value of limiting output, given the cartel’s weakening influence.Story continues below this adThe UAE is diversifying its economy, investing heavily in AI in tune with the UAE Centennial 2071 plan. The transition will require substantial oil revenues, and Abu Dhabi aims to increase oil production to 5 million bpd by 2027. But for the time being, forecasts suggest that countries like India – which imports about 90 per cent of its oil to meet domestic demand – stand to benefit from lower oil prices.Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for March 2026. 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