GOLD VIEW NEXT WEEK 04/05 | THE BIG SHORT MAY START FROM 48XXGoldOANDA:XAUUSDLucasGrayTradingLast week’s price action was a typical news-driven bounce, but what matters is not the move itself — it’s the lack of continuation afterward. Gold reacted to news, but failed to sustain momentum, showing a clear absence of follow-through. This is a key signal that buy-side strength is fading, not building. In a strong market, news acts as a catalyst for expansion, but in this case, it only created short-term volatility before being absorbed. That tells us that larger capital is not interested in pushing price higher at current levels. From a macro perspective, the market is transitioning into a slower phase — one where momentum fades, volatility compresses, and both sides become more selective. Buyers are losing conviction as price fails to break higher, while sellers remain patient, waiting for optimal zones rather than chasing price. This creates a grinding environment, where price slowly bleeds within a range, forming a sideway-down structure. This type of behavior often appears before a larger move, especially when the market is waiting for a stronger macro catalyst such as interest rate expectations or geopolitical developments. Looking at the chart, price is still operating below key structural zones. The upper area, where FVG aligns with demand and trendline, remains a critical liquidity zone where price is likely to revisit before continuing its move. Meanwhile, the lower zones around Fibo 0.5 – 0.618 act only as reaction levels, not strong enough to shift the overall trend. This keeps the broader bias intact — a controlled, slow downside rather than an aggressive trend. MAIN SCENARIO (SELL WITH TREND): If price retraces back into the upper zone around 47xx – 48xx, particularly into the FVG + demand + trendline confluence, this becomes the key area to monitor. A clear rejection or lower timeframe confirmation would likely lead to continuation of the current sideway-down structure. This remains the preferred scenario as it aligns with the weakening momentum and broader macro narrative. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (SHORT-TERM REACTION): If price continues to drop without a proper retracement, gold may react at the lower zones around Fibo 0.5 – 0.618. However, these reactions are likely to be short-term in nature, suitable only for scalp opportunities. Without a structural shift or strong inflow of capital, these zones are unlikely to produce a sustained reversal. Overall, gold is showing signs of gradual weakness in the bigger picture, with capital flow slowing down and market behavior shifting into a distribution phase. This is not a market for chasing moves, but for waiting patiently at key levels. The primary bias remains selling on retracements, but execution requires discipline and patience, especially in a slow and compressed market environment. LucasGrayTrading