Trade Plan 03/05/26 05:30UTCBTCUSD Perpetual ContractBYBIT:BTCUSD.Pgrantf28# Trade Plan Summary Current price: 78,167. SFP fired 2 bars ago at 79,161 — short setup triggered but late. Pullback long is the higher- quality play if price reaches the CC zone. ## Setups, in order of quality ### 🟢 BEST — Patient long at CC zone / pitchfork median (Grade B+) Wait for pullback into 77,665–77,913 where fib .618/.66 + pitchfork median + Snail OB stack. - **Trigger**: SFP at 77,381 + reclaim, OR 15m MS change inside the CC zone, OR rejection wick at pitchfork median 77,665 on 1h close - **Entry**: 77,720–77,913 (CC zone midpoint ~77,815) - **Stop**: 77,150 (structural, below 4h EMA55 77,201) - **Target**: 78,927 nPOC (primary, 1.67R), then 79,161 SFP high (2.03R), trail remainder toward 79,474 Range High - **Why it's best**: 4 confluences (fib .618, CC .66, pitchfork median, Snail OB), regime-aligned Type A long, SFP rejection above creates a defined ceiling to target, strongest beliefs in the stack (pitchfork median 0.85, nPOC 0.82) ### 🟡 OK — Deeper long at Zone B (Grade B) If CC zone fails, next support stack at 77,255–77,445. - **Trigger**: SFP at 77,150 + reclaim, OR 1h MS change at 1h EMA200 (77,252) - **Entry**: 77,255–77,445 (midpoint 77,350) - **Stop**: 76,900 (below 4h fib .5 at 76,934) - **Target**: 78,927 nPOC (primary, 3.5R), then 79,161 - **Why it's OK**: 3 confluences (4h fib .382, 1h EMA200, Snail OB), excellent R:R, but requires CC zone to fail first — second-pullback entry ### 🟠 CAUTION — Late short from SFP rejection (Grade C) SFP already fired at 79,161. Entry is late — only on a bounce back into 78,300–78,400. - **Trigger**: bounce into 78,300–78,400 + rejection candle (bearish engulfing or wick rejection on 1h), OR failed reclaim of 78,649 SFP close - **Entry**: 78,300–78,400 (limit on bounce) - **Stop**: 78,750 (tight, above SFP bar close 78,649 + buffer) - **Target**: 76,635 4h fib .382 (primary, 2.65R) - **Why it's caution**: 5 confluences at the SFP level (SFP, OB, nPOC, pitchfork, Sequence 13) — signal was A-grade 2 bars ago, but late entry degrades R:R. Counter-trend Type B hedge in bull regime. 1D/4H Technicals both Buy = structural -technical divergence. Size at 50%. ## Alerts to set | Price | Direction | Meaning | |---|---|---| | 79,200 | above | SFP invalidated — short thesis dead, breakout continuation | | 78,650 | above | Approaching SFP close — watch for failed reclaim (short trigger) | | 78,400 | above | Short entry zone upper edge — arm limit | | 77,913 | below | CC .66 zone — long entry zone armed | | 77,665 | below | Pitchfork median — key support, best long trigger area | | 77,381 | below | Snail OB — watch for SFP long trigger | | 77,150 | below | CC zone invalidated — deeper Zone B or stand aside | | 76,900 | below | Zone B invalidated — all long setups cancelled | ## Hard rules - Minimum 2:1 R:R on any trade (kill-switch) - Max 3 losses today → walk away - Short is Type B hedge only — 50% size, do not swing - Do not chase the short at current price — wait for bounce into 78,300+ - Long stop at structural invalidation (4h EMA55 / 4h fib .5), never at the zone edge