WARNiNG! BEAR!! BEAR!!! BEAR!!!!Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDJFB14 * Elliott Wave Theory** * Fibonacci retracement and extension** * Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)** * Bearish divergence** * EMA levels (particularly 50 EMA and 100 EMA)** Let's go through each timeframe: --- 🔹 **1-Week Timeframe (W1)** Key Elements: * Wave Count Complete: I'm confident I identified a completed 5-wave impulse structure (top at \~\$124k). * **Bearish Divergence:** Both **MACD and RSI** are showing strong bearish divergence, suggesting momentum is waning. * **Projected ABC Correction:** * Wave **(A)** targets \~66k * Wave **(B)** rebound to \~101k * Wave **(C)** lands deep in the **FVG zone** (\~28k–38k), aligning with the 0.618–0.786 retracement zones. #### Interpretation: This suggests **a macro top is in**, and BTC is likely entering a **larger corrective phase**, with a full ABC move potentially unwinding the 2023–2025 bull rally. --- 🔹 **1-Day Timeframe (D1)** Key Elements: * Price broke down from wave ⑤ structure. * **Below 50 & 100 EMA**, signaling short-term bearish trend. * Fib retracement zones marked for the corrective move: * 0.382 (109,169) * 0.618 (99,572) * 0.786 (92,741) * **Projected path:** * Drop to 99k * Bounce to \~109k (wave B) * Full move down to \~66–70k (Wave A target from W1) Interpretation: I'm anticipating a near-term retracement up (B wave) followed by continuation downward. EMA structure and FVG below support the idea of a **distribution top** being formed. --- 🔹 **4-Hour Timeframe (H4)** Key Elements: * Multiple **1hr FVGs** formed and targeted. * Price losing support, heading toward: * **4hr wick area** * **.618 Fib** * **1W EMA(50)** all clustering around 99k — strong confluence zone. * Clean ABC path marked, first downward, then rebound up. Interpretation: I've marked **confluence around 99k** as a likely bounce zone — potential long scalp area before resumption of macro downtrend. --- 🔹 **1-Hour Timeframe (H1)** Key Elements: * 1hr FVG tested and rejected. * Immediate support structure has been broken. * Projecting drop to \~99k area (overlapping with 4hr FVG zone and .618). Interpretation: Short-term price is following my bearish roadmap. I've mapped out potential bounce-rejection-resumption patterns at key fib levels, focusing on **liquidity grabs and FVG fills**. --- Technical Analysis Summary: Timeframe Key Focus Direction Target Zones 1W Macro top, Bearish Divergence, 🔻 A: ~66k, C: ~28–38k Wave ⑤ done 1D Correction Path (ABC forming) 🔻🔺🔻 A: ~99k, B: ~109k, C: ~66k 4HR Break from 1hr FVG, .618 confluence 🔻 Bounce at ~99k 1HR Immediate weakness, no support 🔻 Heading toward H4 confluence zone 🧠 Final Thoughts: I'm anticipating a **multi-leg corrective move** after a completed macro impulse. The use of divergence, EMA confluence, FVGs, and Fibonacci levels makes this a very **well-aligned and disciplined** analysis.