Global investors have watched China rewrite the rules of competition in the electric-vehicle market. A late start didn’t stop Chinese firms like BYD from overtaking Tesla in Europe, helped by aggressive subsidies, low-cost manufacturing, and sheer scale. Now, the same playbook is being deployed in semiconductors, with potentially seismic consequences for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), US tech stocks, and entire commodity markets.Nvidia’s Growth Story Meets a China ChallengeNvidia’s rise to a four-trillion-dollar market cap has been built on its dominance of AI training chips and a powerful software ecosystem. Demand from US tech giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) remains a pillar of its growth. But China—once one of Nvidia’s largest end markets—is slipping away.Regulatory barriers already limit the chips Nvidia can sell. Even when President Trump briefly allowed the export of its H20 processor, Beijing advised companies not to buy it, citing security concerns. The signal was clear: Chinese firms must turn inward, developing and buying their own processors.For investors, this means the “China premium” embedded in Nvidia’s growth assumptions is now at risk. Any slowdown in Chinese orders could leave Nvidia overextended at its current valuations, adding volatility to one of Wall Street’s most important stocks.Chinese Firms Step Into the GapJust as BYD undercut Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) with affordable EVs, Chinese chipmakers are racing to provide cheaper AI hardware.Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has pledged $53 billion in AI and cloud spending over three years, rolling out chips designed for inference tasks.Cambricon has seen explosive growth, with its Siyuan 590 chip driving revenue to $247 million last quarter and lifting its market value to more than $87 billion.MetaX, a Shanghai startup, is preparing mass production of an H20 alternative, trading efficiency for larger memory.Huawei is building massive computing systems combining hundreds of its Ascend chips. While less efficient, subsidies and state contracts guarantee adoption.These chips may not match Nvidia’s Blackwell series for cutting-edge training. But for inference—the bulk of AI workloads—they are often “good enough.” That is exactly how BYD rose against Tesla: not by leading in innovation, but by leading in affordability and scaling up faster.Broader Market RipplesThe semiconductor rivalry is not just a tech story. It is a macro story that touches equities, commodities, and currencies.Table: Market Impact OutlookSector/Asset ClassLikely ImpactInvestor TakeawayNvidia (U.S.)Growth ceiling in China, rising volatilityValuation risk if Chinese demand shrinksChinese ChipmakersSubsidy-driven expansion, speculative ralliesCambricon, Alibaba, Huawei see strong upsideBig Tech (MSFT, META)Margins pressured if chip costs riseStill rely on Nvidia, but diversification loomsCommoditiesHigher demand for copper, rare earths, polysiliconResource exporters benefit, volatility highCurrenciesYuan support if imports fall, dollar pressured by weaker U.S. exportsFX volatility risesDéjà Vu for InvestorsChina has already shown how quickly it can transform an industry. In EVs, Western firms underestimated how much low-cost manufacturing, subsidies, and aggressive export strategies could tilt the playing field. The same dynamic is now playing out in semiconductors, only this time the stakes are even higher. Chips are the backbone of AI, cloud computing, and the next generation of global productivity growth.Nvidia remains the king, but the crown is starting to weigh heavier. Investors betting solely on U.S. dominance should recognize the possibility that, just as in EVs, China could upend the balance of power. The AI boom will continue, but leadership may not remain as concentrated—or as profitable—as it is today.