BTC capped: fade rallies, buy confirmed reclaimdBitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:BTCUSDT.POx_kali__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Price is consolidating below a “stair-step” ceiling after the ATH pullback, probing the 108,665 pivot. Intraday flow stays bearish, yet a tactical bounce is possible if 108,665 holds and 111,890 is reclaimed. Momentum: 📉 Bearish tactically on intraday, compressing around 108,665 with layered resistances overhead. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF/4H): 110,860–111,890 (SR-flip + W Pivot High), 113,466 (240 PH), 117,249 (12H/720 PH). - Supports (12H/Intraday): 108,665 (12H/720 Pivot Low), 107.8k–108.0k (local wicks), 107,133 (intraday VAL). Volumes: Normal to moderate on 4H; no capitulation seen. Multi-timeframe signals: Intraday (15m–6H) trends Down; 2H/4H show early buy/divergence, 1D sits Neutral Sell. Any bounce likely capped unless 111,890 is reclaimed, especially with non-extreme volumes. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: VENTE — confirms current bearish tilt and warrants tight risk on tactical longs. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Retracement under HTF ceilings: stay defensive — fade rebounds below 111,890 and only buy confirmed reclaims. Global bias: Neutral Sell while < 111,890; bearish bias invalidated on 4H/D close > 111,890 with acceptance. Opportunities: - Tactical long on clean reaction at 108,665 with 2H/4H validation, aiming 110,860 then 111,890. - First-test fade within 110,860–111,890 on clear rejection; target 108,665 then extension on break. - Breakout buy above 111,890 if confirmed, targeting 113,466 then 117,249. Risk zones / invalidations: - A firm 2H/4H close below 108,665 invalidates longs and opens deeper weekly supports. - Acceptance > 111,890 invalidates rebound shorts and risks a squeeze toward 113,466/117,249. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Fed’s dovish tilt (Waller, Daly) + M2 at ATH: supportive for hard assets medium term, timing uncertain. - September UST refinancing: typical early-month pressure followed by post-auction bounce — aligns with a near-term dip risk below 111,890. - Geopolitical tensions (Gaza/Iran): higher near-term risk premium, favoring a defensive posture. Action plan: - Defensive Long: Entry 108.7k–108.9k (2H confirmation) / Stop < 108.2k / TP1 110,860, TP2 111,890, TP3 113,466 / R:R ~1.5–2.2. - Rebound Short: Entry 110.86k–111.89k (clear rejection) / Stop > 111,890 (aggr.) or > 113,466 (cons.) / TP1 108,665, TP2 extension below lows / R:R ~1.8–2.5. - Breakout Long: Entry on 4H close > 111,890 with volume / Stop < 111.0k / TP1 113,466, TP2 117,249 / R:R ~1.6–2.0. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, intraday is bearish while HTF is mixed, with a 2H/4H attempt to breathe around the 108,665 pivot. 1D/12H: Neutral Sell; working 108,665 beneath 111,890 — reclaim unlocks 113,466 then 117,249. 6H/4H: Bearish trend with 110,860 SR-flip and 111,890 cap; sellers in control unless these reject; 4H shows early buy divergence. 2H: Early buy/divergence; reclaim of 110,860 can fuel a squeeze toward 111,890. 1H/30m/15m: Bearish micro-structure; failed bounces under 109.0k–109.5k; only invalidated by a firm reclaim > 110,860. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is supportive medium term (dovish tilt, abundant liquidity) but short-term risk remains elevated; on-chain frames a critical 107k–109k pivot. Macro events: Gradual Fed easing setup (Waller/Daly), M2 at ATH, rising gold preference — structural tailwinds for scarce assets; yet September UST refinancing often brings early pressure before a post-auction bid; geopolitics argues for short-term caution. Bitcoin analysis: Mixed whale/institutional flows — record accumulation but sporadic large sells (dormant 10k BTC); fits a market defending 107k–109k while selling rallies below 113k–114k. On-chain data: STH cost basis 107k–108.9k (sustained loss opens 93k–95k); relief resistance ~113.6k; perps slightly bearish; limited realized pain — upside capped unless 111.9k/113.6k break. Expected impact: Technical + on-chain confluence supports a Neutral Sell bias below 111,890, with near-term dip risk before potential post-catalyst buying. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Market sits in a low-range beneath HTF ceilings, with 108,665 as the pivotal line. - Trend: intraday bearish/neutral; HTF mixed until 111,890 is reclaimed. - Key setup: fade 110.86k–111.89k, or run a defensive long at 108,665 with 2H/4H confirmation. - Macro: dovish Fed tilt but refinancing/geopolitics keep short-term risk elevated. Stay disciplined: defend 108,665 with tight stops and trim under 111.9k; above it, let winners ride toward 113,466–117,249. ⚠️