BTC Breakdown from Rising Trend — Scenarios: Drop, Consolidate, Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSAM_2781The End of a Cycle? My analysis suggests this bull run is showing clear signs of exhaustion. One thing is certain: Bitcoin as an asset class is displaying early signs of maturity, Compared to previous bull runs. . I have been repeating this for so many times. Check the below analysis for a detailed view on the same - This cycle has been longer in duration, yet its structure is mapping out an almost identical pattern in terms of how it's peaking. A Striking Parallel to the Last Peak Then (2021 Peak): Bitcoin broke above the foundational curved support (the yellow line), but failed to break the overhead resistance (the white line). After retesting it twice and forming a double top, it crashed back through the curved support. Now (Current Cycle): The pattern has repeated with remarkable accuracy. BTC broke through the same yellow curved line but has repeatedly failed to breach the resistance from the previous bull season's peak. It has similarly formed a double top and has now officially broken down from its more recent rising trendline. What the Indicators Are Saying The breakdown is further confirmed by a developing MACD death cross on this high timeframe. Historically, before a significant drop following such a crossover, the price action often makes one final spike upward to trap bullish liquidity. This puts a long-standing CME gap around the $9,2200 level back into focus. While BTC has filled nearly all its daily gaps, this is a major one that remains. 4. Three Scenarios for the Path Forward The market is debating whether we consolidate for an alt-season or if BTC has one last leg up. Based on the charts, here are the primary paths I see: The Corrective Wave: The most direct path. Bitcoin fails to reclaim the broken trendline on a retest, confirming it as resistance. This would likely trigger the start of the fall toward the lower CME gap target. The Consolidation Range: Bitcoin consolidates in the area around the recently broken trendline. This period of lower volatility and sideways action could provide the stability needed to trigger a true, sustained alt-season. The Liquidity Hunt: Before a major move down, BTC could make a final, sharp spike upward to hunt liquidity above the recent highs. It would then likely settle back below the white resistance trendline and begin the consolidation phase described in scenario 2, kicking off the alt-season from there. My subsequent analysis will detail the potential duration and targets for the upcoming alt-season based on which of these scenarios unfolds. Like and follow for more in-depth market analysis and forecasts — Thanks for reading. Sam.