IREN: MSFT pop fades—watch $56–58 support, $76 breakout lineIREN LIMITEDBATS:IRENBenRosesBig picture: the Microsoft $9.7B/5-yr GPU cloud contract is a real validator, but the tape is still sorting through funding/margin math. Intraday we’re +6–7% around $64–65, well off the $75.7 high printed on the headline. That long upper wick says “sold-the-news / price discovery.” Chart tells: The $56–58 zone is the recent selling climax / LPS area from October. That’s now first support. Resistance is the $74–76 supply shelf (multiple rejections). A daily close back above ~70 starts to absorb that supply; a clean breakout needs a strong candle through $76 on rising volume. Volume ~57M today = genuine effort; RSI ~60 (room to run, not overbought). MACD is still below its signal but curling—bullish if it crosses up this week. If we lose 63–64 into the close, expect a fade toward 60, then the $56–58 demand band. Hold that and the uptrend remains intact; lose it and you’re back inside the prior range. Macro tape: BTC is -~2.7% on the day and UST 10Y is a touch higher (~4.12%). Slight headwind for anything “capex + risk,” but not thesis-breaking. What the market is pricing right now: the contract proves demand; investors now want mechanics—deployment cadence, gross margin after power/PUE, prepay vs. debt mix, and any added equity. That’s why the pop faded: people are running the cash flow model, not just cheering the logo. My near-term checklist (into and after earnings 11/6): Funding slide – confirm the 20% prepay (~$1.9B), timing of the rest, and whether additional equity is needed (and how much). Commencement cadence – 200MW (H1–H4) at Childress in 2026 is the anchor; Street wants quarterly MW that go from “booked -> live.” Unit economics – price/GPU-hour, utilization targets, power cost/PUE; any guide to segment gross margin. Backlog disclosure – if they frame this as contracted AI ARR with milestones, the multiple holds; if it’s “trust us, it’s coming,” expect chop. Trading plan logic (not advice): Bull path: strong close ≥ $70 → shot at a $76 breakout retest this week; clear it and measured move targets low-80s. Base path: churn $60–70 while the street digests financing; constructive as long as $56–58 holds. Bear path: close < $60 on heavy volume → likely revisit $56–58. Bottom line: the logo is elite, but the stock now trades on execution math. Above $70 into earnings = momentum back; between $60–70 = healthy digestion; below $58 = respect risk until new buyers show up.