KEITH BRADSHER2025年11月4日President Trump has used tariffs to try to reduce American reliance on Chinese exports and prevent China’s factory overcapacity from swamping the U.S. economy. But his effort has hit an obstacle: Beijing was already well on its way to weaning its economy from the United States.特朗普总统一直利用关税试图减少美国对中国出口的依赖，并防止中国的工厂产能过剩冲击美国经济。但他的努力遇到了阻力：中国政府早已着手降低经济对美国的依赖。For two decades, China has systematically pursued economic self-reliance. China has been able to establish choke points to pressure the U.S. economy, while making it harder for Washington to block China.过去20年里，中国一直有条不紊地推进经济自立。中国已经能够建立起可以用来对美国经济施压的“卡脖子”环节，同时也让华盛顿更难封锁中国的发展。Self-reliance has been a cornerstone of Chinese policymaking not just under Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader since 2012, but also under his predecessor, Hu Jintao.“自力更生”一直是中国政策制定的基石，不仅在2012年起担任中国最高领导人的习近平领导下如此，在其前任胡锦涛时期也是如此。Their program of replacing imported manufactured goods with domestic production has been costly and often inefficient. But it has left the West with dwindling leverage it can deploy during disputes.他们推动以国内生产取代进口制造品的计划代价高昂，而且往往效率不高，但它使西方在发生争端时可以动用的筹码越来越少。China’s leaders have become increasingly public about emphasizing the self-reliance drive. It took a prominent place at an annual gathering of the Communist Party’s Central Committee last month, when the country’s top officials laid out a sketch of China’s next five-year plan.中国领导人如今越来越公开地强调这种自立方针。在上个月召开的中央委员会年度会议上，这一主题占据了突出位置。中国的最高级别官员在此次会议上制定了下一个五年规划的总体框架。“We must first and foremost intensify efforts toward achieving greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology,” Mr. Xi said in a speech.习近平在讲话中表示：“我们必须加快高水平科技自立自强。”This year, China has wielded one of its most powerful choke points — its almost complete control over the world’s supply of rare-earth metals and rare-earth magnets.今年，中国动用了最强有力的反制手段之一——它几乎完全掌控着全球稀土金属及稀土磁体的供应。Faced with restrictions on China’s supply of rare earths, Mr. Trump last week accepted a compromise with Mr. Xi.面对中国稀土供应的限制，特朗普上周被迫与中国领导人达成妥协。特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平上个月在韩国。Their agreement left this year’s new U.S. tariffs for China similar to those for countries in Southeast Asia and lower than the tariffs for countries like India and Brazil, with which the United States has traditionally maintained closer relations.这项协议使得美国今年对中国征收的新关税水平与对东南亚国家的关税大致相当，并低于对印度、巴西等传统上与美国关系更密切国家的关税。China’s threat to put extremely tight controls on its rare-earth exports also helped persuade the Trump administration to suspend a policy it adopted in September to expand the number of military-related Chinese companies that Americans are not allowed to do business with.中国威胁将对稀土出口实施极其严格的管制，也促使特朗普政府暂停执行一项原定于9月实施的政策，该政策原本打算扩大禁止美国企业与之往来的中国“军工关联企业”名单。China has gained other choke points through its policies of manufacturing self-reliance. It is the world’s dominant producer of the ingredients needed to make antibiotics and other pharmaceuticals. It is also the main producer of a lot of electrical equipment, low-end computer chips and much more.通过推行制造业自立的政策，中国在其他领域也占据着优势地位。中国如今是全球主要的抗生素及其他药物原料生产国，同时也是大量电气设备、低端芯片等产品的主要制造者。The United States has been left with fewer options when it needs to fight back. When Washington wanted to pressure Beijing to back down on rare-earth export controls, the Trump administration threatened to restrict some of the last categories of crucial American exports that China still needs, like aircraft parts.这使得美国在需要反制时选择日益受限。当华盛顿试图向北京施压、要求其撤回稀土出口管制时，特朗普政府只能威胁将限制中国仍然需要的、仅存的几类关键美国出口产品，例如飞机零部件。Chinese officials are now calling for their country to become even more self-reliant.中国官员现在呼吁进一步增强自立能力。“A comprehensive industrial system benefits the enhanced resilience of supply chains,” Tian Peiyan, one of Mr. Xi’s senior policy advisers, wrote in a journal over the weekend. He added that a very broad industrial base could create “a bulwark of economic security.”“完整产业体系有利于增强产业链供应链韧性，”习近平的一位高级政策顾问田培炎上周末在一份期刊上发文。他还说，一个覆盖面非常广的产业基础可以形成“经济安全屏障”。When China joined the World Trade Organization at the end of 2001, it depended on imports for a wide range of goods. The cars, telecommunications gear, power generation equipment and other manufactured goods that China made then were inferior to imports, prompting many Chinese companies and consumers to prefer imports.2001年底中国加入世界贸易组织时，其众多商品依赖进口。当时中国生产的汽车、电信设备、发电设备和其他制成品质量不如进口产品，导致许多中国企业和消费者更倾向于进口商品。Since then, China has made enormous strides in the quality and quantity of these and many other goods.此后，中国在这些以及其他许多商品的质量和产量方面都取得了巨大进步。“Among 500 major industrial products, my country ranks first globally in the production of over 220,” Jin Zhuanglong, a prominent Chinese engineer, said last year when he was minister of industry and information technology.去年，著名工程师、时任工信部部长金壮龙表示：“500种主要工业产品中，中国有220多种产品产量位居全球第一。”中国的国有银行向电动汽车和太阳能电池板制造商提供了大量贷款，帮助中国成为世界上最大的电动汽车和太阳能电池板出口地。Last month’s Central Committee gathering, or plenum, ordered that China would, starting next year, double down on its emphasis on advanced manufacturing. The plenum document ordered government and business to “work faster to boost China’s strength in manufacturing, product quality, aerospace, transportation and cyberspace.”上个月召开的四中全会要求从明年开始加倍推进先进制造业发展。全会公报要求政府和企业“加快建设制造强国、质量强国、航天强国、交通强国、网络强国”。Beijing has combined the vast scale of its manufacturing operations with considerable state direction. Only a handful of business sectors are left in which American and European industries still lead the world, notably commercial aircraft and a few of the most advanced semiconductors.北京将庞大的制造业规模与强大的国家干预相结合。如今，只有少数几个行业仍由美国和欧洲企业主导，例如商用飞机和一些最先进的半导体。“President Xi has been quite good at finding ways to engineer American imports out of China’s supply chains over time, apart from the most advanced semiconductors designed but not made by U.S. firms,” said Brad Setser, a China specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations.“除了美国公司设计但并非由美国公司制造的尖端半导体之外，习近平主席在逐步将美国进口产品排除出供应链方面取得了显著成效，”外交关系委员会的中国问题专家布拉德·塞特瑟表示。Despite more than a decade of heavy public investment, China lags in making the fastest semiconductors, needed for artificial intelligence and the latest military technologies. But Chinese companies have proved adept at buying and smuggling Nvidia microchips.尽管十多年来投入了大量公共资金，中国在人工智能和尖端军事技术所需的高端半导体方面仍然落后。但中国企业已经证明，它们擅长采购和走私英伟达的微芯片。China’s policies to replace imports with domestic products have included the Indigenous Innovation campaign adopted soon after China joined the W.T.O., Made in China 2025 starting in 2015 and the effort called “high quality productive forces” in the past two years.中国用国产产品替代进口产品的政策包括加入WTO后不久推出的“自主创新”运动、2015年启动的“中国制造2025”计划，以及近两年提出的“新质生产力”战略。The state-controlled banking system has lent heavily at low interest rates to manufacturers of electric cars and solar panels, and China has become the largest exporter of these goods.国有银行体系以低利率向电动汽车和太阳能电池板制造商提供大量贷款，使中国成为这些商品的最大出口国。For some products, China has achieved self-reliance with protectionist trade policies. Since 2008, China has used tariffs and fees that more than double the sticker prices of imported cars and sport utility vehicles with large gasoline engines.对于部分产品，中国通过保护性贸易政策实现了自立。自2008年以来，中国对进口汽车和大型汽油发动机SUV征收关税和各种费用，使其标价翻了一番以上。电动汽车和混合动力汽车目前占中国汽车市场的一半以上。That has not only discouraged imports but meant that Chinese consumers never became accustomed to powerful and bulky vehicles. This is one reason they have been quick to switch over to electric cars and hybrid gasoline-electric cars, which together now make up more than half the Chinese market.这不仅抑制了进口，也导致中国消费者从未习惯于动力强劲但体积庞大的车辆。这也是他们迅速转向电动汽车和油电混合动力汽车的原因之一，如今这两类汽车合计占据了中国市场的一半以上。Since early in Mr. Trump’s first term, American officials tended to dismiss concerns that China might use the choke points it was developing. To do so would damage China’s credibility as a destination for foreign investment, they argued, and would prompt multinationals to shift their purchases elsewhere.自特朗普第一任期初期以来，美国官员往往对中国可能动用其逐步构建的供应链制约手段不以为意。他们认为，这样做会损害中国作为外商投资目的地的信誉，并促使跨国公司将采购转移到其他地方。That could yet happen. But China’s leaders, as shown last month, seemed determined to pursue even greater self-reliance.这种情况或许会发生。但正如上个月所表明的那样，中国领导人似乎决心追求更大的自主发展。The plenum’s closing statement said, “We must consolidate and expand our advantages, break through bottlenecks and constraints and strengthen our shortcomings and weaknesses.”四中全会闭幕公报指出，“我们必须巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项。”储百亮(Chris Buckley)对本文有报道贡献。Li You对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。