Warning: Microsoft closes BACK under Multiyear Range TrendlineMicrosoft CorporationBATS:MSFTAlchemyMarketsMicrosoft has printed a significant bearish candle in October, and this is a major red flag for technical traders. This candle not only aligns with a Shooting Star formation — a classic bearish reversal signal — but also closes back under a MULTI-YEAR rising trendline that’s been in play since 2021. On the monthly timeframe (right chart), we can clearly see a rising channel forming over the past few years. The descending volume adds weight to this structure, suggesting true consolidation or distribution, not just a pause in trend. 📉🐻 Bias: Bearish - Monthly Rejection Candle Unless buyers step back in soon, the risk of a deeper correction grows. MONTHLY TIMEFRAME CONTEXT Shooting Star rejection right at prior channel top Closing back inside range after brief breakout attempt Volume trending lower since 2021 — confirms pattern maturity Interpretation: This kind of rejection after a breakout attempt usually signals exhaustion. Unless volume reverses sharply, the next few months could retrace toward mid-channel support (Around VAL at 50% Fib retracement). DAILY TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS MSFT’s recent volume profile highlights $510.32 as the point of control - price with the highest recorded traded volume. Hold above $510–518 → bulls can still grind higher along the rising trendline Break below $510 → opens room to test $497.67 (~$500 psychological support) Below that, we enter the deeper retracement zone: 50% Fib at $450.51 → midpoint of the 2024–2025 rally 61.8% Fib at $425.56 → aligns with top of mid-2025 market gap 78.6% Fib at $390.04 → confluence with multiyear lower trendline, potential 2026 projection target Market structure note: Losing the Point of Control (POC) at $517.81 would confirm the short-term trend shift and make the $450–$425 zone a strong liquidity magnet. Closing Thoughts: Microsoft’s fundamentals have started flashing caution too — not because growth is gone, but because expectations are stretched. Last quarter’s cloud and AI segments still showed strength, but CapEx guidance surged, margins tightened, and investors didn’t love the tone of the forward outlook. Add to that a hawkish Fed backdrop, slowing enterprise spend, and rotation out of mega-cap tech, and you’ve got a setup that could easily unwind a bit of premium. For now, it’s a “wait and see” moment — if bulls can defend $510 and the broader market stabilises, this may just be a cooling-off phase. But if we keep closing under the multiyear trendline, that’d confirm a shift from momentum to mean reversion, and the next few months could get interesting.