Chipotle, UnconvincedChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.BATS:CMGcalebgsmith2000Unconvinced. That is how I feel about CMG. From the public’s perspective, Chipotle is a dying company. Prices up while quantity and quality are down is the main objection from the public. All reviews point to your local chipotle as the nastiest places you can go with overpriced food and rude workers. I do not buy it. I may be naive, but can anybody name a business that hasn’t shrunk quantity or quality to meet margins over the past few years. We are in a bull market; how do you think stocks go up? Margins and profits go up. In 2016 I could eat at McDonalds for $7 now it’s closer to $15. Meanwhile chipotle used to cost $8 now it is $10 and there is outrage. I believe that consumers are spoiled or ignorant (as am I, I must confess.) This is a publicly traded company, if your expenses have doubled since 2019, what do you think happened to theirs? Are the leaders going to just lose their job to shareholder outrage just because they won’t increase prices by 20% over 5 years? I think not. And as for the rude and nasty chipotles, yes, I agree, but I do think that is more of a generational and geographical problem than we give it credit for (I am 25 so I understand.) A Boca Raton chipotle will be a better experience than a Mississippi location (I’m from Mississippi, relax.) I do not go into many fast-food style restaurants and feel engulfed with pride in my fellow gen z ers (is that the right generation? Idc.) Moral of the story every time I go into chipotle: it’s packed, not that clean, I still get a bowl for $10, and it’s mildly healthy. Now as for what Ceo Scott boatwright has said during his interviews after Q3 earnings and guidance. He blames the slowdown in guidance to his team's conservative outlook and the economy for the next 2 quarters. Meanwhile, Rev up 7.5% yoy, which is moderate. Including that last time we entered this price range in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 area, net income has almost doubled. This seems like the same tariff scare we saw 7 months ago, sell the news, and then find out it might not be that bad. I believe Americans will still spend their last dollars on things they don’t need. Am I saying that Americans aren’t struggling no, But I do not think chipotle is first cut to a financial freedom. All you can do is think for yourself and the people around you. When my family and I want a meal and don’t want to drop $100 at Texas roadhouse, Chipotle is the budget friendly option that doesn’t make you feel sick like conventional fast food. I know this company has its problems, but when a household name like Chipotle drops 50%+ you must wonder why. For about .5-1% of my portfolio, I am willing to bet that the “why” is over exaggerated. As seen on the charts. This is the first time that the PE and RSI have met at this level since the GFC. It does seem like a falling knife, and I would be stunned if we didn’t go lower, but $25-$31 seems like a good starting point for me. If you are looking for a quick flip this is not the move for you, but I believe in 10 years I’ll be happy and finally able for afford extra guac! Good luck out there and remember THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Q3 notes (what I found interesting) CEO Scott Boatwright Says the overall economy is hitting business the hardest right now Notes that spending has slowed, especially among their main customers — 25–34-year-olds making under $100K Expects things to turn around by Q2 2026 Loyalty program remains a strong point for the company 10-Q Highlights (Q3 2025) Revenue up 7.5% year-over-year in the third quarter Opened 84 new stores — around 300 more total than this time last year Operating cash flow: $1.7B for the first nine months of 2025 vs. $1.6B last year — mostly due to tax timing and the H.R.1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act Investing cash flow: Used $7.3M vs. $701.5M last year — big change from a drop in investment purchases, partly offset by higher spending on new restaurants Financing cash flow: Used $1.7B vs. $735M last year — mainly from more stock buybacks Interest rate note: Company has about $1.8B in cash and investments — most of it interest-bearing, so rate changes affect their income and results