TMC the next TRUMP trade?TMC the metals company Inc.NASDAQ:TMCTBB_TradesInitiated a new long position today in $TMC. This is a speculative event-driven play which has 5-6X potential though high risk of downside as well. The Metals Company (TMC): The intersection of geopolitics and precious metals: Company overview: TMC is a deep-sea mining firm aiming to harvest precious metals from the ocean floor. Its focus is on collecting polymetallic nodules (rock-like deposits rich in valuable metals) found in the Pacific. The company positions itself as a future supplier of materials critical for electric vehicles and renewable energy, offering a potential alternative to China’s dominance in global metal supply chains. *Note: It is estimated the addressable market of undersea metals globally could be as high as $20 trillion and TMC is the only company on earth who has the technical ability to mine it at scale. Bull thesis: 1. Strategic metals, unique source: TMC controls vast polymetallic nodule fields in the Pacific containing nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese all critical to EVs and grid storage. It’s essentially a one-stop shop for the metals the West currently depends on China for. 2. Competitive advantage: TMC is the only company that has the technical ability to mine ocean floor at scale. 3. Geopolitical tailwind: With U.S.–China trade tensions escalating and Beijing’s stranglehold on critical minerals, TMC could become a strategic asset. There’s a real chance Trump pushes for domestic control of these resources possibly through a U.S. government equity stake or funding, similar to how the DPA (Defense Production Act) has been used to secure other materials. 4. Precedence: Trump admin has already take equity stakes in other metals companies including MP Materials, Lithium Americas, Trilogy Metals but none of these companies offer ocean-floor mining. 5. Regulatory momentum: TMC has already filed for U.S. permits and continues to work under the International Seabed Authority framework, putting it ahead of potential competitors if rules are finalized or the U.S. decides to act independently. Catalyst: The White House has issued executive actions and invoked authorities to accelerate critical mineral production and has deployed non-market tools (loan guarantees, DPA, DFC, even minority equity in select miners), signaling political willingness to take stronger measures to secure supply chains. If policymakers treat polymetallic nodules as strategically important, direct equity/financing or government partnerships could follow. I expect announcement over coming weeks/months. Analyst ratings: Most notably Wedbush (early Palantir bull) has rated TMC with a “buy” and $11 price target. But they would quickly re-rate company into the $20s if US gov takes equity stake or Trump allows them to have permit. - Cantor, Alliance Global, and HC Wainwright also have buy rating on the stock. Risks: This is a binary play. I won't be in this long. Either they will get gov stake / permit or they won't. Bottom-line: This is a high-risk, high-reward investment which I believe plays beautifully into ongoing precious metals / China trade tension narrative coupled with Trump administration’s desire to be more aggressive with de-regulation and pursuing any avenue to decrease China leverage over US supply chains. Stock is down 30% from recent highs, and I have initiated a position at $6.50 with intent to begin selling in the $20s. Invest at your own risk.