GBPCHF November 2025 fundamental analysisBritish Pound/Swiss FrancFX:GBPCHFOneirotradeBritish Pound (GBP): Stagflation Amid Rate Cuts and Fiscal Concerns Monetary Policy Trajectory The Bank of England faces mounting pressure to deliver another rate cut in November, with markets pricing in approximately 75% probability of a 25 basis point reduction. This follows September's inflation reading of 3.8% year-on-year (below the 4.0% consensus) and a surprise uptick in unemployment to 4.5%. Current projections suggest interest rates will decline to around 3.75% by the close of 2025, with two additional reductions anticipated in 2026, eventually bringing rates to approximately 3.25% over the medium term. Economic Challenges The UK confronts what economists describe as "the most stagflationary economy in the developed world"—a brutal combination of high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment. The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 represents a critical inflection point, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves under pressure to balance fiscal responsibility against growth imperatives. Services inflation remains elevated at 4.7%, while core CPI sits at 3.5%, both above the BoE's comfort zone. The labor market is softening, which could prompt the BoE to ease despite persistent inflation concerns. However, some MPC members have expressed caution about reducing rates too rapidly, creating policy uncertainty. November Outlook: Bearish The pound's trajectory is decidedly negative for November. The expected BoE rate cut, combined with fiscal tightening signals from the Autumn Budget, creates a challenging environment. GBP/USD forecasts suggest range-bound trading between 1.32-1.38, with downside risks predominating. Against the euro, the pound has already weakened to 0.8765, approaching key support levels. Analysts at RBC Brewin Dolphin note that much of the pound's recent upward movement is actually "more to do with underlying dollar weakness than faith in sterling itself". Swiss Franc (CHF): Safe Haven Supremacy Despite Zero Rates Swiss National Bank Policy The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%. Economic Environment Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments. November Outlook: Bullish The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment. Verdict GBP faces severe challenges towards the of the year and is unlikely to find back its footing anytime soon. All the while CHF is on a consistent upwards trajectory backed by central bank composure. GBP/CHF is therefore a SELL in November.