Gold’s Pullback Is a Trap for the Unprepared

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Gold’s Pullback Is a Trap for the UnpreparedGoldOANDA:XAUUSDzaferyardimci1Gold is not collapsing. It is consolidating after a historic surge, and the evidence across timeframes shows this dip is a high probability buying opportunity. Traders focused only on the short term are missing the bigger picture because the monthly and weekly charts reveal a powerful bull trend still intact. The monthly timeframe tells the dominant story. Gold closed October at 3858.45, near its all time high of 4381.44, with the 1M RSI 7 at 95.44 and 1M ADX 14 at 63.15—confirming an extremely strong uptrend. The MACD histogram remains positive at 81.78, and price is trading well above all major monthly moving averages, including the 1M SMA 200 at 1592.71. This is not a market ready to reverse. It is a market pausing to digest gains before its next leg up. On the weekly chart, the structure remains bullish. Price pulled back from 4381.44 to test the 3886.47 low, which aligns with the 1W SMA 10 at 3776.44 and the lower Bollinger Band at 2991.35—still far below current levels. The weekly ADX 14 is 53.91, signaling a strong trend, and the MACD histogram is still positive at 59.92. Even though the weekly RSI is overbought, that is normal in strong bull markets and does not signal an imminent reversal. Now look at the daily chart. Price is at 4002.81, below the 1D SMA 10 (4096.48) and 1D SMA 20 (4080.89), creating short term bearish pressure. The daily MACD histogram is negative at –41.99, and RSI 14 is neutral at 52.48, suggesting temporary weakness. But crucially, price is holding above the daily pivot at 3989.09 and the 1D SMA 50 at 3808.41—a major support zone. The 3950.95 S1 pivot and 3877.38 S2 level offer clear downside buffers. The 4 hour chart shows early signs of stabilization. Price is trading above the 4H SMA 20 (3982.52) and the MACD histogram has turned positive at 8.49, hinting at short term momentum building to the upside. Short term, gold could test 3950 over the next 5 to 10 days as bears push for a deeper retracement. But the higher probability outcome is a bounce from this zone toward 4100, supported by 4H momentum and daily support alignment. Medium term, within 4 to 8 weeks, gold is likely to reclaim 4250 and challenge the all time high near 4380. This aligns with the upper weekly Bollinger Band at 4140.24 expanding upward and sustained volume on up weeks. Long term, by the end of Q1 2026, gold is positioned to reach 4700, based on the monthly R3 pivot at 4442.75 and the continuation of the primary bull trend confirmed by monthly ADX and MACD strength. This pullback is not weakness. It is the market separating disciplined trend followers from emotional sellers. The technicals across timeframes confirm one truth: gold’s bull run is far from over.