BTCUSD The 114k decision line for the week of Nov 3 to 7Bitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:BTCUSDT.PexluxOne chart. One plan. You can trade the first week of November with a simple map built around one decision area. The band at 112.9k to 114.5k is the gate. Above it, momentum can breathe. Below it, treat strength as suspect and keep risk tight. The Friday close was 110,050 which keeps price right in the middle of the range and sets up a clean reaction trade into the new week. What to draw on your chart Zones • 112,900 to 114,500. Decision band and prior late October highs. • 109,800 to 108,800. First support shelf from the last pullback cluster. • 107,200 to 106,400. Deeper support if the week turns risk off. • 118,000 and 121,700. Extension targets if buyers control the week. References • Add a 50 day and a 200 day moving average on the daily chart for context. Treat the 200 day near the 109k area as a health check. Lose it and fail to reclaim and the swing bias flips cautious. • Add a 20 day ATR read on your platform. Current context is about four percent. I size stops and targets from that number. Why now The tape gets several event tests in one week. Manufacturing PMI on Monday. Services PMI plus the Treasury quarterly refunding details on Wednesday. The United States jobs report on Friday at the usual morning slot. These three items move the dollar and the long end of the curve which in turn moves crypto risk appetite. When the dollar eases and the ten year cools, Bitcoin usually gets running room. When the dollar spikes and yields lift, bounces fail faster. You do not need a complex model. You only need a clear reaction plan and the will to stay patient until your trigger shows. How to trade it Use an ATR based framework. With ATR near four percent, half ATR is about two percent and one and a half ATR is about six percent. These are round figures and they keep your plan honest. Three rules for the week • Breakout rule. Take longs only on a 30 minute close above 114,000 with the next candle holding above 113,800. Stop equals half ATR. First take profit equals one and a half ATR. Trail the rest by one ATR. If the daily session closes back under 112,900 you stand aside and reassess. • Range fade rule. If price tags 114,000 and fails with weak breadth or tired momentum, fade back toward 112,900 with a tight stop above the rejection wick. Scale out near 111,800 to 112,200. Stand down if the dollar softens and yields fall during the move since that flow can squeeze fades. • Failure rule. A daily close under 109,800 is a risk off signal for swing longs. Respect the shelf at 108,800. If it breaks and cannot reclaim, look for price discovery toward 107,200 to 106,400. Only step in again on a stop run and clean reclaim pattern. What I need to see for momentum A decisive reclaim and hold above the 114k band. Dollar index pushing through the prior session low or at least failing to bounce with energy. Ten year yield not making new session highs during the break. Intraday pullbacks that respect one ATR trails without heavy wicking. If those four items happen on the same day, 118k is the first reasonable extension. The second extension sits near 121.7k where the last impulse ran out of steam. What tells me the idea is wrong A strong dollar and a hot yield print with BTC unable to lift through 112.9k. A fast push above 114k on thin liquidity that gives back the level within two or three candles. A daily close under 109.8k that comes on rising volume. In that case the path of least resistance shifts to a deeper test and the best trade may be no trade until the next reclaim signal. Risk template you can copy • Stop: half ATR from entry. • First target: one and a half ATR. • Remainder: trail by one ATR. • Size: risk a fixed R per trade so that a full stop equals your planned loss for the session. • Events: flatten or cut size to half R at least ten minutes before each major release. Re engage only after the first full post release candle closes. Mindset for the week Keep the number of trades small. Let the 114k band answer the only question that matters. Are buyers willing to pay higher prices or not. If yes the job is to stop fighting and ride the extension. If not the job is to protect capital and allow the market to come to your levels. Most of the damage in this market does not come from bad reads. It comes from over trading a chop. One plan and the discipline to sit tight can beat a dozen hot takes. Chart checklist before you click Is price above or below 114k on a 30 minute closing basis. Is the dollar softening or firming during the push. Is the ten year easing or lifting during the push. Is your stop equal to half ATR. Is your first target equal to one and a half ATR. Have you sized for one R and set a hard daily loss limit. Educational research only.