USDJPY Event Pivot Map for 3 to 7 Nov 2025US Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYexluxWhat you are looking at A clean level map built for a news heavy week. Price finished Friday near 154.00. The plan respects three things. The rate gap still favors the dollar on pullbacks. Liquidity is distorted on Monday with Tokyo closed. The main risk event is US payrolls on Friday. This idea gives you precise levels, simple if then rules, and invalidations so you can trade the week with calm execution. Education only. How to set up the chart Timeframe 1 hour for structure. Keep a 15 minute pane handy for entries. Add previous week high and low. Mark 154.30 153.95 153.20 152.80 152.20 154.80 155.00 as horizontal lines. Mark event windows in your session tool. Monday 10 00 for ISM Manufacturing. Wednesday 10 00 for ISM Services. Wednesday refunding communication during New York morning. Friday 08 30 for payrolls. All times New York. No indicators are required. If you prefer a reference, add a simple session midpoint for New York to see where intraday auctions are leaning. Why these levels matter 154.30 has acted like the top of a negotiation box. Above it the tape often accelerates into 154.80 and the round 155.00. 153.95 is the heart of the box where momentum decisions flip. 153.20 is the lower step where buyers have shown up after bad headlines. 152.80 and 152.20 are the deeper shelves from the prior stair step higher. None of these lines are sacred. They are places where inventory changes hands and where your risk can be defined. Rules in three lines • If price clears 154.30 on a real event and holds on a 15 minute close, trade long pullbacks toward 154.80 and 155.00 with stops under 153.95. • If price loses 153.20 on soft data, trade short into 152.80 then 152.20 with stops back above 153.60. • If price is inside 153.95 to 154.30 ahead of a release, fade extremes only with half size and fast invalidations. Day by day mindset • Monday. Tokyo is closed for Culture Day. Liquidity is thinner. Let Asia show its hand. ISM Manufacturing at 10 00 can push a quick move. If the print is firm and the first drive takes 154.30, wait for the retest. If the print disappoints and we slip through 153.65, look for 153.20. • Tuesday. JOLTS at 10 00. Treat it as light steering. If it leans soft and we are already heavy from Monday, a test of 153.20 is likely. Avoid forcing a breakout in the middle of the box. • Wednesday. BoJ minutes in the Japan morning. ISM Services at 10 00. Treasury refunding details during New York. This is your hinge day. If Services is firm and refunding leans heavy in duration, yields can pop and USDJPY can carry through 154.80. If Services is soft and refunding is benign, the pair can slide under 153.60 and test the lower shelves. • Thursday. US Productivity and unit labor costs at 08 30. Japan household spending and wages later. Treat Thursday as a bridge into payrolls. Trade smaller. Let others over trade noise while you protect risk. • Friday. Employment Situation at 08 30. The first move is often noisy. Give it fifteen minutes. If headline and wages beat and unemployment is steady, pullbacks into 154.50 are buys with eyes on 155.00. If the complex misses across the board, respect momentum lower into 152.80. Position sizing and risk Keep half size when price is inside 153.95 to 154.30. Expand only after a clean break on a real catalyst. When fading, stops belong just beyond the level that defines your thesis. If you fade 154.30, your stop lives above the event high. If you fade 153.20, your stop lives below the sweep that fails to continue. Take profits into the first target and trail the remainder behind a five to eight pip structure on the 15 minute chart. Use a hard flat rule before payrolls if you are not in a free trade. The goal is longevity. Three scenarios with invalidations Baseline range. Monday through Wednesday morning ping between 153.95 and 154.30 while traders wait for Services and refunding. Buy the lower third and sell the upper third with five to eight pip stops. Invalidation is a 15 minute close beyond the box with follow through volume. Dollar push. Services strong and refunding heavier in the long end. Price accepts above 154.30 then stair steps to 154.80 and 155.00. Buy pullbacks only. Invalidation is a 15 minute close under 153.95 after the event. Dollar slip. Services soft then payrolls miss. Price loses 153.20 and finds supply on retests. Short rallies into 153.20 with targets 152.80 then 152.20. Invalidation is a 15 minute close back above 153.60 without a new data impulse. Comparator versus a simple hold This is an illustrative arithmetic example for the same week with a 154.00 anchor and a modest fee assumption of 0.5 pip per side. • A naive hold that carries through payrolls from 154.00 to a hypothetical Friday settle at 154.40 gains 40 pips, but the path can include a 70 pip drawdown on a midweek miss. • A level approach that buys the 153.95 retest after a confirmed break and takes profit near 154.80 then trails a remainder can bank 30 to 60 pips with a typical trade drawdown near 15 pips. • The point is the ratio of return to drawdown. Even if the hold finishes with similar net pips, the level approach aims to cut the worst hole you dig. The smaller hole is what keeps you in the game next week. This is not a backtest. It is a risk framing you can apply in live conditions. Common mistakes to avoid • Chasing the first minute after 08 30 or 10 00. Let the first wave print a structure. • Trading the middle of the box without a clear catalyst. • Ignoring time of day. The option cut and the cash equity open can reverse intraday flows. • Forgetting that official commentary risk increases as the pair drifts toward the upper one fifties. Treat that zone with extra respect even if it is not in play this week. Final checklist Levels drawn and alert lines set at 154.30 153.95 153.20 152.80 152.20 154.80 155.00. Event alarms on Monday 10 00 Wednesday 10 00 Friday 08 30 New York time. Plan written for each scenario with invalidation and size. Goal for the week is a clean process and a healthy Return divided by Drawdown, not hero trades. Educational material only.