Calm before the StormGold vs US-DollarBLACKBULL:XAUUSDrdicieroGold remains trapped in a tight consolidation around the psychological 4,000 level as markets prepare for this week’s ADP Employment Report and other private U.S. data that will still be released despite the ongoing government shutdown. Price action is perfectly balanced — neither bulls nor bears are in full control — but structure still leans slightly bearish while the Federal Reserve’s tone remains hawkish and the dollar stays firm. Technical Outlook Gold continues to oscillate between 3,995 and 4,015, with repeated rejections at both boundaries. Buyers keep defending the 4,000 area, while sellers continue to cap upside moves near 4,015–4,020. A daily close above 4,015 could trigger a short-term breakout toward 4,035–4,045, while a sustained move below 3,995 would expose 3,985–3,965 and possibly 3,950. Momentum remains neutral and volume light, signaling that gold is coiling for a 25–30 USD move once the range breaks. Fundamental Context Even with the U.S. government shutdown, key private indicators like the ADP Employment Report and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index will be published this week. The ADP data on Wednesday (8:15 ET) will likely set the tone: • A strong print above +100K could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, strengthen the USD, and weigh on gold. • A weak or negative print could revive safe-haven demand and push gold toward 4,050–4,080. Until then, markets remain quiet and balanced, waiting for a catalyst. Powell and Fed Dynamics No official Powell speech appears on the Fed’s agenda this week, but his latest comments were clearly hawkish-pragmatic — signaling patience and data dependence after recent rate cuts. Any unexpected remarks reaffirming a “higher for longer” stance would strengthen yields and the dollar, adding downward pressure on gold. Weekly Focus Wednesday: ADP Employment Report (Private Sector Jobs) Friday: University of Michigan Sentiment (Preliminary) Saturday, November 8: 40 days of government shutdown — a potential psychological risk event if the political stalemate continues. My View Gold is holding the line at 4,000 — not breaking, not bouncing. The market is waiting for a catalyst, and this week’s U.S. employment data might be it. Until then, I’m watching 4,015 for a breakout and 3,995 for a breakdown. Expect volatility to rise sharply midweek as traders reposition for the next macro leg. “Gold is quiet today, but quiet markets rarely stay quiet for long.” #Gold #XAUUSD #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #ADP #Fed #Powell #GovernmentShutdown