EURHUF | Near a Support LevelEuro/Hungarian ForintSAXO:EURHUFInvestoConsultingOver the past year, the Hungarian forint has shown meaningful appreciation, supported primarily by the still elevated domestic interest rate environment. At the same time, the forint remains among the more vulnerable emerging market currencies, as also reflected in recent market movements. Events over the past few weeks have resulted in considerable volatility in the exchange rate. Among the fundamental drivers, the weekend’s Hungarian election deserves particular attention in the short term, as it could materially influence the direction of the forint. Based on my current assessment, risks appear tilted toward further forint weakness in the near term, which would imply a higher EURHUF exchange rate. The technical picture provides partial support for this view, as the RSI indicator is signaling oversold conditions. That said, it is important to emphasize that taking such a position involves notably high risk. Accordingly, speculative exposure related to the forint may be appropriate primarily for investors with a higher risk tolerance. In the short term, over a time horizon of several days to one or two weeks, elevated volatility and more pronounced price swings cannot be ruled out. Over the longer term, however, I continue to assign a higher probability to further forint weakness.