PETER EAVIS2026年4月10日周三，在阿曼附近海域的船舶。伊朗已表示，希望通行的船只必须与其武装部队进行协调。 ReutersHundreds of tankers are waiting to return to the Strait of Hormuz so that the waterway can once again become a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas.数百艘油轮正等待返回霍尔木兹海峡，以便这条水道能够再次成为全球五分之一石油和天然气的运输通道。But the shaky cease-fire struck between the United States and Iran has not coaxed the tankers back — and even if it holds, other obstacles have to be overcome for shipping traffic to return to normal.但美国和伊朗之间达成的脆弱停火协议并没有说服油轮返航——即使停火能够维持，要让航运交通恢复正常仍有其他障碍需要克服。Iran has kept a stranglehold on the strait throughout the war by laying mines and attacking vessels. As part of the cease-fire, Iran’s foreign minister said, the country will allow “safe passage” for ships through the strait, but he added that the vessels would have to coordinate with Iran’s armed forces and that passages would be subject to “technical limitations.”在整个战争期间，伊朗通过布设水雷和袭击船只对霍尔木兹海峡保持着严密控制。作为停火协议的一部分，伊朗外长表示，该国将允许船只“安全通行”，但他补充说，船只必须与伊朗武装部队协调，而且通行将受到“技术限制”。What is the situation in the strait now?海峡目前的状况如何？Only four vessels traveled through the strait on Wednesday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, down from an average of nine a day over the previous five days. And shipping analysts said there were no signs of large-scale positioning or queuing to go through the strait.根据标普全球市场财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的数据，周三只有四艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，而此前五天的日均通过量为九艘。航运分析师表示，目前没有出现大规模船只集结或排队等待通过海峡的迹象。The fragility of the cease-fire — Iran said on Wednesday that Israel’s attacks on targets in Lebanon had violated the agreement — was the main reason ships were holding back, shipping industry participants said.航运业人士表示，停火协议的脆弱性是船只犹豫不前的首要原因——伊朗周三称，以色列对黎巴嫩目标的袭击违反了协议。“It’s too unstable for anyone to commit,” said Oscar Seikaly, chief executive of NSI Insurance Group, a maritime insurance brokerage.“局势太不稳定，谁都不敢做出承诺，”海事保险经纪公司NSI保险集团的首席执行官奥斯卡·塞卡利说。What has to happen first for ships to go back?要让船只返回，首先需要实现什么？First, shipping analysts say, there has to be confidence that the cease-fire will hold. And then there has to be a declaration from Iran that it will not attack vessels.航运分析师认为，首先必须建立对停火协议能够维持的信心。其次，伊朗必须明确宣布不会袭击船只。“Iran must clarify that the strait is open for safe passage. Otherwise, vessels should not be expected to sail through the way they were doing prior to the war,” said Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.“伊朗必须明确表示海峡对安全通行开放。否则，不能指望船只像战前那样通过海峡，”华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员诺姆·雷丹说。But Iran is also demanding that it oversee and coordinate passages through the strait. The government hasn’t clearly stated what vessel operators must do to gain permission to pass through. Some shipowners have made “toll” payments to Iran. And, according to Kpler, a shipping tracking firm, most of the crossings during the war have taken a route that goes close to Iran’s coast. This suggests that Iran requires taking this route.但伊朗同时要求对通过海峡的船只进行监督和协调。伊朗政府尚未明确说明船只运营商需要做什么才能获得通行许可。有些船东已经向伊朗支付了“通行费”。根据航运追踪公司Kpler的数据，战争期间大多数穿越都采取了靠近伊朗海岸的路线。这表明伊朗要求船只走这条路线。Iran’s official broadcaster said on Wednesday that, because of anti-ship mines in the traffic zones, vessels must coordinate with the Iranian Navy and use designated routes to cross the waterway.伊朗官方广播电台周三表示，由于交通区域存在反舰水雷，船只必须与伊朗海军协调，并使用指定路线穿越该水道。Do governments have to get involved?各国政府是否必须介入？The governments of India, Pakistan and Thailand have worked with Iran to ensure safe passage of vessels.印度、巴基斯坦和泰国的政府已与伊朗合作，以确保船只安全通行。In a joint statement on Wednesday, the leaders of seven European nations, Canada, the European Commission and the European Council said their governments “will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation” in the strait.七个欧洲国家、加拿大、欧盟委员会和欧盟理事会的领导人周三在一份联合声明中表示，他们的政府“将致力于确保海峡的航行自由”。President Trump suggested on Wednesday that the United States might jointly control the strait with Iran.特朗普总统周三暗示，美国可能与伊朗共同控制霍尔木兹海峡。“The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” Mr. Trump said in a social media post. “There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made.”“美利坚合众国将帮助解决霍尔木兹海峡的交通积压问题，”特朗普在社交媒体帖子中写道。“将会采取大量积极行动！将会赚到很多钱。”ABC News reported on Wednesday that Mr. Trump had told one of its reporters that the United States could operate shipping in the strait “as a joint venture” with Iran.ABC新闻周三报道称，特朗普告诉该报记者，美国可以在海峡“以合资方式”运营航运业务。Will shipping return if Iran doesn’t give up full control?如果伊朗不放弃完全控制权，航运会恢复吗？Analysts say Iran can continue to act as a gatekeeper if the number of vessels going through the strait remains relatively small. But it would not be able to manage the more than 100 ships a day that passed through the strait before the war.分析师表示，如果通过海峡的船只数量保持在相对较少的水平，伊朗可以继续充当“看门人”。但它将无法管理战前每天超过100艘船只的流量。“Blanket passage arrangements are unlikely to be implementable by Iran, due to capacity constraints around vessel identification and ongoing requirements to guide vessels through the corridor,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an email.“由于船舶识别和持续引导船只通过走廊的能力有限，伊朗不太可能实施全面的通行安排，”标普全球市场情报公司中东和北非国家风险主管杰克·肯尼迪在一封电子邮件中表示。Also, the threat of war will linger if Iran keeps throttling the strait. The Persian Gulf states do not want Iran to have such power over the waterway. Oman, the country on the other side of the strait, could invite ships to pass close to its coastline, but such a move might prompt Iran to attack the vessels.此外，如果伊朗继续对海峡实施限制，战争威胁将持续存在。波斯湾国家不希望伊朗对这条水道拥有如此大的控制权。位于海峡另一侧的阿曼可能会邀请船只靠近其海岸线通行，但此举可能促使伊朗袭击这些船只。Will shipping companies pay a toll to Iran?航运公司会向伊朗支付通行费吗？Given that more than 100 large commercial ships have gone through the strait since the war began, some vessel operators are willing to negotiate with Iran and even pay millions of dollars for a passage. Shipping companies are losing money on vessels that are waiting to go through the strait, so they may be willing to pay large sums to get their ships out into the Indian Ocean and operating normally.鉴于战争爆发以来已有超过100艘大型商船通过海峡，一些船只运营商愿意与伊朗谈判，甚至愿意支付数百万美元以获得通行权。航运公司因船只滞留而正在亏损，因此它们可能愿意支付大笔费用，让船只进入印度洋并恢复正常运营。Still, the larger, more established shipping companies may decide that doing business with Iran is too much of a legal risk, particularly if the United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran.不过，更大型、更成熟的航运公司可能会认为，与伊朗做生意存在太大的法律风险，尤其是如果美国继续对伊朗实施制裁的话。“The issue of sanctions on Iran makes it a very complicated process, since it involves financial transactions with a sanctioned regime,” Ms. Raydan said.“对伊朗的制裁问题使这一过程变得非常复杂，因为它涉及与受制裁政权的金融交易，”雷丹说。How hard is it to get insurance?获取保险有多难？When the fighting began, the cost of “war risk” insurance for ships and cargo going through the strait skyrocketed. A few shipping companies bought it, and it has been available at times during the war, Mr. Seikaly, the insurance executive, said. But the fragility of the cease-fire has driven down demand for insurance.战斗开始时，针对通过海峡的船舶和货物的“战争风险”保险费用急剧飙升。保险业高管塞卡利表示，有少数航运公司购买了这种保险，在战争期间有时也能买到。但停火协议的脆弱性已导致保险需求下降。“It is not the right moment, and everyone knows that,” he said.“现在还不是时候，这一点大家都知道，”他说。Peter Eavis报道全球货物运输业务。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。