FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar sold off acrossthe board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefireagreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal.The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if bothparties agree. Given the de-escalation,the risk sentiment in the markets turned around quickly and risk assets gotheavily bid. As you would expect, traders went back to price in rate cuts forthe Fed with now 14 bps of easing expected by year-end compared to basically zerobefore the ceasefire announcement. There’s still a risk thatthe war could restart any time as the US and Iran haven’t officially ended thehostilities. Nonetheless, the bias has now turned bearish for the dollar astraders look forward to a lasting peace deal.JPY:On the JPY side, thecurrency strengthened just because of dollar weakness as the Japanese macroconditions haven’t really changed that much. The drop in oil prices and theexpected resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz might ease growthconcerns since Japan is heavily reliant on imported energy. This should supportthe stock market and lift business sentiment. Looking ahead, the market ispricing in a 50% chance of a BoJ hike in April. The central bank is more likelyto hold interest rates steady and let things settle after the conclusion of theUS-Iran war (that’s if it really ends in the next two weeks). The BoJ could signala rate hike in June though if they think they have the right conditions inplace. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY is approaching the key 157.65support. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined riskbelow the support to position for a rally into the 162.00 handle. The sellers,on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish betsinto the major trendline around the 155.00 level. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here given the strong move to the downside. At the moment,the natural target for the sellers is the support around the 157.65 level. That’swhere we either get a bounce or a break. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee that the price is trading way below the lower bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, wecan generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move,although given the strength of today’s catalyst, we might see the price fallfurther into the support before a pullback. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC meeting minutes. Tomorrow, we get the US PCE priceindex and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the weekwith the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentimentsurvey. As a reminder, we have also the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad onFriday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.