EUR/USD surges as US-Iran ceasefire triggers dollar selloffEuro vs US DollarTHINKMARKETS:EURUSDThinkMarketsThe geopolitical landscape has shifted overnight. A 2-week US-Iran ceasefire has triggered a major US dollar selloff, sending EUR/USD surging over 1% to fresh 1-month highs. We break down the sudden downturn in global rate hike expectations and map out the breakout trade setups ahead of critical USS data this week. Key topics covered - Geopolitical U-Turn: The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire and imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have crushed the recent energy-driven inflation panic, causing the US Dollar to dump. - Falling rate hike expectations: With the energy crisis cooling, the probability of an April ECB rate hike has dropped alongside Fed rate cut expectations being re-priced in. We preview how this shifts the focus to tonight's FOMC minutes and the upcoming US PCE and CPI data. - EUR/USD breakout: The euro has broken out of its recent flag pattern, pushing above the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1650. However, with the 4-hour RSI trades near 80, a near-term consolidation is likely. EUR/USD scenarios & trade plan Bullish (Retest setup): A pullback and hold of the new 1.1650 support confirms the breakout and offers a swing-long opportunity. Entry: Long on a successful retest of 1.1650. Stop-Loss: Below the high-momentum breakout candle at 1.1591. Targets: The heavy consolidation zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Bearish (False breakout): If the euro fails to hold support and loses the 1.1627 line in the sand, the bullish breakout is invalidated. Entry: Short on a confirmed break below 1.1627. Targets: An initial drop to 1.1591, exposing a deeper collapse back inside the flag pattern towards 1.1450 and the 1.1410 lows. Are you buying the breakout retest or anticipating a false break? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.