Expected breakthrough from TON or news bluff again?TONUSDT SPOTBYBIT:TONUSDTInvest_life The key problem of TON as an asset is now in a long-term Bear market, which began in June 24, and the general negative background in the market is not at all conducive to a reversal upward Previously there was a powerful narrative (Telegram + Web3) and there was a pump → then a long cooling It's very similar to: SOLUSDT SOL after 2021 ADAUSDT after 2021 DOTUSDT DOT after 2021 That is, there is a narrative, but the money has not yet been returned. What the TON chart says (historical fact): ATH: $8.27 (June 2024) Current levels: $1.2–1.3 Drop by -60%...-85% from the high. This is a classic trend break after hype + distribution. Technical now: 70–77% of indicators are bearish RSI ≈ neutral (not oversold, no strong rebound) The price is in a long-term downward/sideways channel, but the trend has not reversed and this is important Fundamental (what is the strength of TON)? Here's where it gets interesting: ✅ Strengths: 1) Integration with Telegram (≈1 billion users) 2) Wallet directly in the application (+10% in staking on popular cryptocurrencies) 3) Ecosystem growth (payments, mini apps) 4) Real use-case (not just DeFi) This is a huge plus - distribution > technology ❗️ But there are risks: 1)Addiction to Telegram and Pavel Durov 2) Regulatory risks (Europe is already pressing, the USA is ready) 3) Competition (Solana, Ethereum L2) 4) The token did not become a “must-have asset” even within telegrams. NFT gifts do not bring any practical benefit to the owners. Forecast until 06/01/2026 (realistic) The most likely scenario is: $1.5 – $2.5 (weak sideways growth with rebounds) Bull scenario: $3–5 (if the crypto market is growing and Telegram is actively pushing TON - the least likely scenario. Bear script: $0.8 – $1.2 if the market is weak or TONUSDT TON does not receive liquidity My honest conclusion is that TON is now not a trend investment, but a speculative asset with a foundation. There is no upward trend here, but a short-term jump could be strong if the stars align positively in the near future. In my channel you can find more interesting ideas!