Bitcoin Potentially Entering a local Wave 3 of its macro Wave 3Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTsanuwat25Elliott Wave Analysis Bitcoin likely completed its macro Wave 2 with the bottom in November 2022 (~16k). Since then, price action suggests the start of a new macro Wave 3, which is typically the strongest phase of the cycle. The move into the January 2025 high can be interpreted as a local Wave 1, followed by a corrective local Wave 2 in an ABC structure: •Wave A: Jan 2025 → Apr 2025 •Wave B: Apr 2025 → Sep 2025 •Wave C: Sep 2025 → Feb 2026 An alternative view is that the ~125k high (Sep 2025) was a Wave B bull trap, implying an extended correction. If the February 2026 low (~60k) marks the end of this correction, then Bitcoin may now be entering local Wave 3 within macro Wave 3, historically the most impulsive part of the trend. A key structural invalidation level for this thesis is the July 2023 high (~32k). A sustained move below this level would challenge the broader bullish structure. However, as long as 60k holds, there is currently no strong reason to expect a move toward that level. Fibonacci Analysis The decline into February 2026 forms approximately a 1.618 extension of Wave A, a common completion level for Wave C. As long as price remains above 60k, the structure supports the idea that the correction has ended and a new impulsive phase may begin. Trendline Analysis A descending trendline from the 125k high to the ~98k lower high (Jan 2026) is beginning to show signs of a breakout. While early, this suggests weakening downside momentum and a possible transition into a new trend. Price Structure On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has held the 60k–70k region, aligning with key support levels. Price structure also resembles a double bottom, suggesting accumulation and a potential reversal zone. PPO Analysis Previous cycles saw PPO lows around -19%, while the current correction only reached approximately -11%. This indicates weaker downside momentum compared to prior cycles and supports the view of a structurally stronger market. In a Wave 3 environment, upside momentum typically dominates, making a deeper PPO reset less necessary. Conclusion Bitcoin may be transitioning into macro Wave 3, with the recent low of ~60k marking the end of a correction. If this structure holds, the market could be entering its strongest phase of the cycle. Risk Management For hodlers: What is SL? For traders: SL at 58k Local support: ~60k Macro invalidation: sustained break below 32k would indicate a failed Wave 3 That said, all technical analysis remains subject to external factors — and, as always, could be invalidated by unexpected macro events… including a well-timed comment from Donald Trump. Good luck!