On Sunday, Hungary goes to the polls in what is widely regarded as its most consequential election in two decades. Viktor Orbán, the architect of “illiberal democracy”, the European Union’s longest-serving Prime Minister and a close ally of Donald Trump, stands to lose after sixteen years in power.The election is being closely watched by the US, the EU and Russia. In typical Trump fashion, the White House has thrown its weight behind Orbán, with US Vice President JD Vance travelling to Budapest to show support. At a rally, Vance put the US President on speaker: “I love that Viktor, I’ll tell you, he’s a fantastic man, we’ve had a tremendous relationship,” telling the assembled voters to “stand with Viktor Orbán.”Over the past 16 years, Orbán has transformed Hungary’s political landscape. He rewrote the Hungarian Constitution, reshaped its judiciary and consolidated control over its media, filling every sector with loyalists. Today the country occupies a unique space in the global right, featuring Orbán’s self-proclaimed “illiberal state” built on “national foundations.” In practice, Hungary is a democracy in name, where elections are held and opposition parties may campaign, but the playing field has been tilted to favour the ruling Fidesz Party, and challengers must win by a landslide simply to beat the systemic odds against them.On Sunday, such a scenario may yet come to pass, given Orbán’s unpopularity in recent years over economic stagnation and high costs of living, as well as the enrichment of a small circle of loyalists at public expense. The government’s closeness to Russia has also come under fresh scrutiny, after leaked recordings this week appeared to show Orbán’s foreign minister working with Moscow to block Ukraine’s path to EU membership. Current polls place the incumbent Fidesz Party at 37%, behind the opposition Tisza Party, led by former Fidesz insider Peter Magyar, at 50%, according to a Reuters report. Peter Magyar, the Hungarian opposition leader, during a rally for his party in Keszthely, Hungary, March 29, 2026. (The New York Times)Magyar gained popularity in 2024 when he publicly resigned from all government-related positions after the Hungarian president pardoned a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse. Magyar took the opportunity to present the incumbent government as prioritising preservation of power at any cost. The newly founded Tisza Party had an impressive showing in the June 2024 European elections, polling 30%, second to Fidesz.The implications extend beyond Hungary’s borders: For Brussels, a possible change of guard could mean a leader more amenable to European integration and support for Ukraine, both positions Orbán has repeatedly opposed. For Moscow, the stakes are equally high: Orbán has been Russia’s most reliable ally within the EU, and a Tisza government would remove Putin’s most effective advocate from the European table.However, a victory for Magyar would only be the first of many hurdles to clear – he would need a supermajority that currently remains out of his reach. A new Tisza government could find itself stonewalled by the Constitutional Court, packed with Fidesz loyalists, who could indefinitely stall or oppose legislation.What does Trump owe Orbán?Story continues below this adTrump’s friendship with Orbán is his longest and most consequential political alliance globally. When Trump announced his presidential campaign, Orbán was the first EU head of state to embrace him, seeing a shared quest against open borders and globalism. Since then, the two leaders have met repeatedly, with Orbán travelling to Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago and the White House.Also in Explained | Why UK’s plan to cede the Chagos islands appears to be coming apartThis friendship has deepened into an alliance that has shaped the conservative populism now governing the US. The template of the current Trump administration has direct origins in Orbán’s governance style.In 2014, Hungary began actively reaching out to like-minded groups in the US, which in turn approved of a populist, conservative government that had used state resources to consolidate its hold on power. Think tanks like the Danube Institute, funded by the Hungarian government, became intellectual hubs for the American far-right in Europe, hosting American nationalist figures attracted to Orbán’s unapologetic style. CPAC, the annual conference of the American conservative movement, has convened in Budapest for five consecutive years.This influence culminated in Project 2025, the controversial policy wishlist that has informed several policies of the current Trump administration. Academics who have analysed both systems observed that Trump’s early policy decisions in 2025 have directly mirrored some of Orbán’s early policy decisions. In an interview with NPR in May 2025, Kim Scheppele, professor of Sociology at Princeton University, said she recognised the Orbán playbook in Project 2025. “The first thing Orbán did was to suspend the civil service law and fire huge numbers of public employees, particularly those in the public broadcast media. And the second move was that he weaponised the state budget,” she said.Story continues below this adOrbán proudly declared this connection in a public speech in 2024, saying, “We have entered the policy-writing system of President Donald Trump’s team.” This was reciprocated last year when Trump invited Orbán to the White House, calling him a “great leader” and lauding his views on immigration — Orbán called refugees “Muslim invaders” — and crime. Hungary has benefited from Trump’s policies to an extent, gaining an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas.However, Hungary has not been spared the burden of Trump’s tariffs, with key export sectors such as automotive, electronics and food hit by Trump’s broader tariffs on EU goods, with companies such as Audi and Mercedes facing significant exposure. Orbán broke ranks with EU leadership last April to vote against the EU’s retaliatory measures in a bid to preserve his bilateral relationship with Trump.The result of Sunday’s election will also be watched by the wider global right, for whom Orbán’s Hungary has served as a model and a rallying point. The so-called ‘Trump effect’, once viewed as a sure political boost, already contributed to defeats for Canada’s Pierre Poilievre and Australia’s Peter Dutton, both of whom modelled their campaigns on Trump’s brand of conservative populism. A loss for Orbán, the man who wrote the playbook, would be the most pointed verdict yet.