Technical analysis April 13: Robusta established the Bear Trap aRobusta Coffee Futures (May 2026)ICEEUR_DLY:RCK2026Hung-JKThe market recorded an extremely strong withdrawal reaction (Hammer) at the support area of 3,273, neutralizing the Sellers' attempt to break out. Short-term trend turns positive; Trading tends to prioritize opening a Buy position when the price regains the 3,325 mark towards the target of 3,480. 1. Review previous session recommendations Short position at 3,310 towards 3,137 has reached the short-term profit target when the price hits the lowest at 3,249. However, the price action reversed quickly at the end of the session, causing the deep decline scenario to be interrupted. Currently, all Short orders have been settled at breakeven point or slight profit. The explosion of Arabica (+2.18%) in the past session has completely changed the context, turning the decline of Robusta into a decline before increasing again. 2. Overview of trends & price structure Robusta is showing signs of forming a short-term bottom after failing to test the lower boundary of the medium-term falling price channel. Although the following peak structure is lower than the previous peak is still present on the daily chart, the appearance of a withdrawal candle at the 3,249 area right after Arabica broke out shows that the inter-market divergence is gradually narrowing. The current market phase is shifting from a reduction push to a re-accumulation phase with the foundation being a bearish price trap around the 3,325 threshold. The logic of the chart reflects the exhaustion of forced supply; When the Sellers are no longer able to push the price deeper despite negative technical signals, the market will often react with a strong recovery to seek higher liquidity at the resistance levels above. 2. Technical prices Resistance: 3330 – 3480 – 3800 Support: 3273 – 3249 – 3137 3. Detailed technical analysis The candle on April 10 closed as a Hammer with a long lower shadow, confirming extremely strong bottom-catching demand at 3,249. Data correlation: Price withdrew + Low volume (5.02K) + OI decreased (22.16K) → Market lost interest. In this context, the decrease in OI accompanied by the withdrawal candle confirms that the Sellers have completed their profit-taking behavior (Short Covering) and are no longer interested in pushing the price down. VPA signal confirms supply depletion at low price range; The current market is very "light" and can easily explode if there is a small demand force at the beginning of the next session. Hedge funds are in a state of skepticism after being caught off guard by the previous trading session. Market sentiment changed from pessimism to positive caution as the pressure of heavy rain in Brazil began to permeate. Traders have stopped defensive selling activities at the 3,250 zone and are showing signs of starting to buy (Long Hedge) to counterbalance logistics risks, creating a solid price cushion that leaves the Sellers with no chance of winning in the short term. The series of gradually lower lows was interrupted by a pullback at 3,249. Structural analysis shows that the bearish wave (Z) is likely to be truncated as it cannot reach the target of 3,137. Instead, the price is creating a recovery wave toward the upper border of the price channel at 3,480. The current price position is right next to the rotation mark of 3,325; A close above this mark will confirm the complete Fakeout pattern. The recovery structure will only be disabled if the price turns around and closes decisively below 3,240. 4. Next session's trading scenario Scenario 1 (65%): Price breaks out past the previous session's high of 3330 and closes stably above this range. Action: Open a Buy position (TP: 3480. SL: 3240); Background: Confirmation of Bear Trap and Resonant Recovery Rhythm from Arabica Floor. Scenario 2 (35%): Price faces pressure at 3330 and returns to accumulate in the 3273 – 3310 area. Action: Stand aside and wait for the Engulfing candlestick signal at support 3273; Basis: Buyers need more time to accumulate demand after the shakeout. 5. Recommendations by subject Manufacturers/exporters: Temporarily stop all selling at this low price. Patiently wait for the price to recover close to the resistance of 3,480 to establish Short Hedge positions with better profit margins.